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Originally Posted by Skipaway
I thought it's not hard to understand what I mean by decline. It's not likely Chipper Jones could maintain his career average level for the next few years, and his 2003, age 31, is already below his career average. It's fairly common sense a player's career average would likely be lower when retired than age 31.
His three year OPS+ trend? 162, 155, 141. By common aging curve, isn't it safe to assume his career peak was age 27~29, and he'd be more close to 135 than 155 the rest of his career?
Also about the differences between Chipper Jones and Edgar Martinez:
Top 1 OPS+ in the league:
Martinez 1 time
Jones 0 time
Top 3:
Martinez 5 times
Jones 1 time
Top 5:
Martinez 7 times
Jones 1 time
And no, I was not talking about their Hall of Fame credentials. I was talking about "probably equal to with the bat".
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Chipper was worse at 28 than he was last year. If this hamstring injury proves to be chronic, I would agree he probably won't match his career numbers. However, Edgar is a perfect counterexample to the "peak at 27-29". He didn't peak until his middle 30's. Who says Chipper won't improve once he recovers from this injury? The player he is most similar to, Sheffield, has had a few decent years since age 32 I think
I think we might have to agree to disagree because neither of us can really prove our point at this time. If Chipper goes downhill a lot in the next few years, I'll admit I was wrong.