[KurtBevacqua]

Piazza and Pudge are first ballot guys if they retire tomorrow.

Here's how Baseball-Reference.com compares Posada to his all-time peers:
Similar Batters through Age 31
Mike Lieberthal (929)
Carlton Fisk (924) *
Johnny Romano (914)
Todd Hundley (910)
Charles Johnson (906)
Javy Lopez (902)
Eddie Taubensee (899)
Chris Hoiles (898)
Ed Bailey (898)
Jody Davis (892)
Granted, Fisk is on the list, but Fisk was a fluke. His career was just getting started at 31. He played another 15 years. I have a hard time seeing him catch another 5 years, let alone 15. And he's only really had five years as a regular (going on 6 now). Other than being a Yankee, I see nothing to put him in the Hall when guys like Bill Freehan and Lance Parrish aren't in.

Javy has a much better case the Jorge. Javy has nine seasons as a regular catcher (going on 10) many of which were consistantly at a higher quality than Posada's. Here's Baseball-Reference.com's most similar:
Similar Batters through Age 32
Gabby Hartnett (919) *
Carlton Fisk (896) *
Roy Campanella (892) *
Ernie Lombardi (872) *
Del Crandall (870)
Benito Santiago (858)
Jack Clements (839)
Todd Hundley (836)
Terry Kennedy (829)
Lance Parrish (825

I see a lot more Hall of Famers on Javy's list than Posada's. The four most closely suited to Javy's career track are all in the Hall. If Javy has another 3 seasons comparable to what he's done so far I'd say he gets in. Posada needs at least 5.