Quote:
Originally posted by Skipaway
Perhaps you are not familiar with the PAPIP theories.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=1503
The study by Keith Woolner showed that pitch counts less than about 120 are very safe, while the danger of injury increased rapidly after that.
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Sort of. Actually, what it showed was that pitch counts of 130 or more are unsafe, relatively speaking. According to that study, 120 pitch outings are no more dangerous than 100 pitch outings (but slightly more than 110 pitch outings, which screams "sample size problems" to me), and since the next data point doesn't occur until 130, the only conclusions one can reach from it are:
a. There's not a great deal of danger from throwing 120 pitches, and
b. There's quite a bit more from throwing 130 or more.
Quote:
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Isn't it amazing that Leo Mazzone almost always pull his starters before the magic number? What you said about variations at best would prove the magic number might be less than 120 for some pitchers.
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Mazzone's succcess does not, in fact, speak to the goodness of pitch counts. Mazzone's success speaks to at the very least the genius of Leo Mazzone and at most the goodness of the general idea that one should pull pitchers at the first sign of fatigue. For some guys, that's going to be 80 pitches, for others, 130.