Got one reply on the study. Good.
Player are blooming late? Well, Carlos and Rick blooms late (well, they haven't bloomed at all) - they have slow/stalled growing in rating. However, I don't really see it happening in this group of dratee. One thing to remember, this study is done using the
newly created leauge. So, this is not the same league as the one that Carlos and Rick are in.
Well, the study does beg for question as how much protential fullfilled can you define as successfully blooming? 90%, 80% or 70%? I classify, 75% of of A/P as successfully made it (realize most of the potential), 85/90% as fully realize potential. If that guideline is acceptable, then you can look at the group %A/P, where they show, 80% A/P at age of 26 (successly survive growing) and fully realize potential (90%) at age of 30. To me, this is not too bad. I am not make any conlusion as the study so far is still too small-sized, but as a *trend* it's showing that players matures when they entering their prime. As for % A/Pi, I think of it as point of reference. As in how successfully are the initial evaluations (kinda, in a way). So, does the player projects as All-star player or bench player or career minor leaguer at the time of draft? As a group, it's showing over 70% A/Pi entering age of 26. This is pretty good, as some players turns into bust (Miguel Camacho 2B, barely fullfill 60% of initial potential rating). So, as a group, they pretty much successfully survive growing process.
Another thing to think about is how much do you expect them to grow ( in potential)? 10%,20%, or even 30%? I am not forming any opinion (observation result) yet becsuse this is just a sub-group (1st rounder) of a draft class.
I had coaches/scouts turned ON because I want to see how much influence do the coach quality have on ability growth or rating growth. I haven't start to analyze them yet and I think I can only start to have observations after looking at a larger-sized sample (whole 1982 draft class or more, pherhaps).
Thanks for all replies, please keep sharing observations.