Here's those numbers about Brown I mentioned, courtesy of Skipaway
Quote:
Originally posted by Skipaway
This is what the predicting system on baseballprospectus.com PECOTA think:
Player 04A 04D 05A 05D 06A 06D 07A 07D
Colon 17.9 5.5 23.7 12.1 30.0 18.5 37.4 21.7
Pettitte 34.4 8.5 38.5 13.3 46.1 25.2 59.7 37.9
K. Brown 60.3 33.1 66.2 58.9
Millwood 12.3 5.2 21.4 9.4 25.8 14.9 33.3 19.4
Glavine 35.0 15.4 43.2 36.8
Attrition Rate(A) is the percent chance that a player's plate appearances will decrease by half from his average of the past three seasons.
Drop Rate(D) is the percent chance that a player will have no plate appearances at all.
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If these were proved accurate, Brown has a 60% chance, if he makes it through this year unscathed, of missing the whole next one. First he has to negotiate this year, which he has a 60% chance of only pitching half his normal number of innings.