2024 Final Week – Pro/Rel Update (Tiers 1-3)
Elite League
Title Chase
National BC (Shunna): 113-67
Westline BC (Ransu): 112-68
Pasataki Galaxy: 108-72
We may set a new Elite League record this year - there has never been an EL champion with fewer than 120 wins, and that came in the league's inaugural year of 1991.
Remaining series:
National: @ Shunna Municipal, vs. Westline
Westline: vs. Mighty Oaks, @ National
Pasataki Galaxy: @ Tsapna, vs. Lutrul
All three teams have some tough games to go, and of course we'll be looking at every game of the final series until one team locks it up. The Galaxy need to hope that they're within 2-3 games when the last series comes around - it'll be tough to get there vs. Tsapna, but not impossible. I have to think National has the edge, with the easiest midweek opponent, getting the most important series at home, and already having a 1-game lead. If it comes down to this, National's edge in run differential currently sits at 12 runs (+181 to +169). The Galaxy have the league's best run differential, so they would be very likely to win any tiebreaker they come across.
Relegation (3 teams go down)
Clinched:
Hokrof BC: 62-118
Needs a miracle:
Sitache BC: 69-111
Still in trouble:
Cheshek BC (Ransu): 79-101
Shunna Eagles: 76-104
Akashemo United: 75-105
Mithazni BC (Hefem): 74-106
One of these teams will be relegated for sure. Cheshek is probably safe, while the other three have been flip-flopping back and forth for weeks now. None of the relegation contenders will actually play each other, so there'll be a ton of scoreboard-watching. If run differential comes into play, the current tiebreaker order is Eagles, Cheshek, Akashemo, Mithazni.
Remaining series:
Cheshek: vs. Nokir, @ Mighty Oaks
Shunna Eagles: @ Kupore, vs. Shunna Municipal
Akashemo United: @ Meka, vs. Amnanache
Mithazni: @ Amnanache, vs. Keleri
Second League
Promotion (3 teams go up)
Clinched:
Aroketsil Spirits: 121-59
Not actually clinched mathematically, but with a 10-game lead and 10 games to go, I'd bet a quite large amount of money that the Spirits will be returning to the EL for the 2025 season. I would also bet, though not as heavily, that they will be able to fortify much better this offseason & probably avoid relegation back to this point in 2026.
Decent shape:
Otahel City: 113-67
Gonna be very close:
Nokelto Scouts: 111-69
Killitash Bayside: 111-69
Remaining series:
Otahel City: @ Takanse, vs. Fampalo
Nokelto Scouts: @ Aroketsil Spirits, vs. Takanse
Killitash Bayside: vs. Aroketsil Canaries, @ Sowichark
This is going to be quite close, with two of these three teams going up. The Scouts have the hardest schedule, but in one week anything can happen. The run differential tiebreaker belongs to Nokelto, then Killitash, then Otahel last, which could also definitely impact things.
Relegation (4 teams go down)
Clinched:
Killitash Stars: 59-121
Tenshemaho Rubies: 57-123
Doesn't look good:
Sowichark United: 76-104
Wichku BC (Aksa, ZA): 74-106
The gap between Sowichark and the next teams up is five games, probably too much to erase in a week. Sowichark and Wichku play each other first this week, so they definitely can't both be saved. If one of them survives, it'll be quite a story.
Northern Premier League
Promotion (2 teams go up)
Locked up months ago:
Pale BC: 131-49
Looking good:
Linir BC (Nokelto): 112-68
Still possible:
Onesti BC (Oyefit): 109-71
Not that much to talk about here. Onesti would need to outplay Linir by four games given the magnitude of the separation in run differential (nearly a hundred runs). Both teams have about the same schedule difficulty as well.
Relegation (4 teams go down)
Clinched:
Lulo BC (Tsatsaye, TA): 57-123
Need a miracle:
Alilia Captains: 64-116
Losap BC (Kiyefexit, LS): 63-117
Some real danger:
Moshelosi BC (Penhara): 72-108
Lisa United (Lisa, RP): 70-110
Oyefit BC: 69-111
Just as in the 2L, none of the relegation contenders play each other, apart from already-relegated Lulo traveling to Moshelosi.
Southern Premier League
Promotion (2 teams go up)
Clinched months ago:
Sokroch BC (Pasataki): 131-49
In the mix:
Hiolye United (Hiolye, HO): 106-74
Wikyats Athletic (Tenshemaho): 104-76
Killitash Giants: 103-77
In a similar situation to the EL title race, Hiolye @ Wikyats as the final series of the season looms large. Can Hiolye's 2-game lead carry them through? Or, if it's a tough even series, can the Giants sneak through and replace their city rivals, the Killitash Stars, in the Second League?
Relegation (4 teams go down)
Clinched:
Loshtsi BC (Reyal, KL): 63-117
In a dogfight:
Tinshenikosh BC (Tinshenikosh, PI): 82-98
Himespo BC (Himespo, RT): 81-99
Neshori BC (Seshal, KX): 81-99
Shepero BC (Shepero, PI): 80-100
Amkutan BC (Sorfiwa, EE): 78-102
Aksa Hornets (Aksa, ZA): 77-103
Still a ton up in the air here. Mathematically, I think there are still three other teams that could be relegated here, but it appears that three of this group will go down to the tier-4 Southern Super League. Surprisingly, the only series between teams in this group on the final week is Amkutan @ Aksa Hornets to close the season.