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Old 04-10-2026, 03:18 PM   #103
thenewchuckd
Minors (Single A)
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Posts: 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by CBLCardinals View Post
There is precedence here….Baseball America now has basically two FV on prospects that appears to be “if everything works out” and a “more realistic outcome. Attached example.
I like this. Essentially, though, it comes down to development risk was not fully flushed out or implemented properly in ootp.

I shouldn't see many, if any, 16 year olds with a low development risk. However, that's what you get.

Also notice that risk always goes down with age, never up. With better scouting, the risk goes down, never up (in my experience).

I think development risk should be about talent change randomness. Instead, there seems to be a hidden potential assigned to players that you never see (regardless of how good your scouting is).
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