Quote:
Originally Posted by locuspc
Advanced stats come from ratings. Future performance comes from ratings. You understand both these things. How is it not immediately obvious to you that this means future performance is correlated with advanced stats?
Yes, if you're playing in commissioner mode and looking directly at the underlying ratings in the editor, the advanced stats don't tell you anything you couldn't figure out on your own. Most people don't play that way. You shouldn't go around saying things "advanced stats do not give any insight into future performance" without caveating it with "once you already know a player's ratings with perfect accuracy".
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It is incorrect to say that all advanced stats come from ratings. I have been careful to state Statcast simulations as a subset of advanced stats. That is because they come from ratings. Others are based on performance in the game. Some of those are BB% for batters and HR/FB for pitchers. These tell only what happened not what will happen.
The simulation of Statcast is different. As you say, it is based on ratings. That means given sufficient sample size they could be used to evaluate the accuracy of the scouting rating. The sample size is insufficient.
I've tried to identify advanced stats (based on performance) and Statcast simulations as separate things. I'm sorry I haven't been adequately clear on the difference.
You've stated its easy to verify that advanced stats can be used to predict future performance. I contend that 1) those advanced stats based on performance cannot be used to predict future performance, and 2) the sample size of Statcast simulations too small to be useful. So if you have some tests that show otherwise for either 1) or 2) that are conclusive and can be duplicated by others please post them.