Quote:
Originally Posted by locuspc
There's a contingent of people who gripe about the implementation of advanced stats because they want OOTP to be a physics simulation instead. Just ignore the trolls. It's easy to verify that advanced stats do in fact correlate with future performance in the game engine.
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Advanced stats show what happened. Same with regular stats. They don't reveal what will happen in the future. If a player over performs or under performs ratings then that's randomness. and there's a lot of randomness in the game.
Statcast simulations are based on ratings. They are not based on play outcomes. So what they show is not related to the performance seen in advanced stats. People are looking at these two things as related when they are not.
With a sufficient sample size Statcast simulations could be a clue that scouting is inaccurate. A sufficient sample size is unlikely.
If, as you say, "it is easy to verify" that advanced stats predict future performance then do it. Run some tests with sufficient sample sizes and results that can be duplicated by others. And if performance gets better, explain how better performance happened during the prediction period without ratings to drive it and how better performance during the prediction period resulting in better ratings to drive future performance.