Quote:
Originally Posted by atlbrave1
Using Fangraphs Future Value rankings, the 2026 draft will have one player at 55 Overall, 4 players at 50, 21 players at 45 (or 45+). As I recall, when the developers tried to reflect these types of grades, there was a pretty big uproar. I don't disagree that currently it isn't realistic, but if you have the 10th pick in the draft, you would be looking at a 45 guy, maybe one or two 40s and a bunch of 35 and below, and if I recall that made the last 15 rounds of the draft pretty much useless because there were a bunch of players who were so similar that there wasn't much point in trying to find a diamond in the rough because they were all just rough.
Does OOTP generally overrate all players as compared to MLB? Yep. But I think that is a design decision because in reality almost all MLB players are 45-55 overall guys with variations that make them a 60 or 40. Having farm systems stocked with guys with 40-55 potential may be realistic, but it is kind of boring.
The last thing is that I think that TCR would need to be tweaked if the ratings were changed. Right now it seems as though most talent adjustments are to the negative, where in reality at the prospect level, there are some increases but mostly player stay flat (i.e. just don't develop). Looking at top 100 prospect board from FanGraphs there are 110 players with 50 FV (only 30 at 55+), indicating that players "improve" (really it is just getting more information) from the draft.
As to my prior point how would players be differentiated at the draft to know who could make that leap? Or is it simply random? Konnor Griffin was a 50 FV guy in March 2025 and is now a 70 FV. Maybe you can make it work with a combination of scouting and money, but I don't really think that is necessarily realistic either (does anyone think Pittsburgh has the best scouting and puts the most money of any team into development)?
For myself I want to be able to dream on my #9 pick (Griffin's slot) and I am guessing Pittsburgh was as well. But if he's just one of two dozen 45 potential guys in the draft, hard to dream on him, but instead dream on a couple of talent changes.
It's a difficult spot for developers, because I think there is a fun factor that needs to be thought about. I enjoyed the draft in 2026 (made spreadsheets and everything to find guys I "valued") and I think having a wider spread and "higher" values is an important part of that experience.
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These are good callouts. For context, FanGraphs tends to be the most conservative on FV. That’s not a good or bad thing, just a fact. Baseball America and MLB Pipeline tend to be more optimistic on players potentials.
Like others have said, most MLB players are somewhere between 45-55, some 60, some 70, and very few 80.
Draft classes SHOULD reflect more reality IMO. Somehow we have to switch a mindset of “oh he’s only a 50 FV” to “oh, 50 FV is a really good outcome…means the player will be league average / around 2 WAR. While not “sexy”, you need depth and cheap 50 grade players around, unless your the Dodgers budget.
Even discussing potential has its own caveat…are we talking 50% outcome (more realistic) or 10% outcome? That 50 may be a 70 like Griffin if the hit tool develops.