THE HOT CORNER
Baseball coverage from the inside — Sacramento Prayers and the FBL
By Claude Playball | Baseball Insider & Analyst | Host, "Hot Corner" Podcast
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June 15 – June 30, 1993 | Games 68–82 of the Sacramento Prayers 1993 Season
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FIFTY WINS. NOW LET'S TALK ABOUT THE CLOSER.
The Sacramento Prayers have fifty wins. They are the first team in the American League to reach that number, and they enter the All-Star break with a four-game lead in the AL West, a .610 winning percentage, a rotation ERA that remains the envy of this league, and an outfielder who is building a Most Valuable Player case that grows more persuasive with each passing week. Fifty wins in eighty-two games is not a team in crisis. I want to say that plainly.
Now let's talk about Luis Prieto.
The closer for the Sacramento Prayers has blown four saves this season. Two of those blown saves came on consecutive nights — June 28th and 29th — against the El Paso Abbots, who are 32-50 and currently losing at a rate that, if sustained, would produce a historically poor season. On June 28th, Prieto entered with a 4-2 lead in the ninth inning and did not record the save. On June 29th, Robby Larson threw eight innings of two-run baseball — 85 pitches, six strikeouts, a game score of 72 — and handed a 5-2 lead to the bullpen, which Prieto promptly converted into a 5-5 tie via a three-run home run. Both games became losses. Both games should have been wins. They were not, and the reason they were not has a name and a number and an ERA of 5.35.
I intend to address that situation in the detail it deserves. But first: fifty wins. Savor it for one paragraph before we proceed to the uncomfortable parts.
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JUNE 15–30 IN REVIEW: A GAME-BY-GAME TOUR
vs. Seattle: June 15–17 (3-0)
The Seattle Lucifers arrived at Cathedral Stadium in the condition of a team with serious institutional problems — 29-38, four consecutive losses, a pitching staff with an aggregate ERA that belongs in a different conversation from any starter Sacramento runs out every five days — and the Prayers treated them accordingly. The sweep was professional and efficient.
The June 15th game belonged to Jesus Hernandez, who went 3-for-4 with a home run, four RBI, and a walk, and to Andretti, who gave Sacramento seven innings of two-run work for his ninth win. Cruz hit a two-run homer in the fifth, Baldelomar added one in the seventh, and Hernandez's two-run shot in the eighth put the final margin at 11-2 with the kind of authority that a full Cathedral Stadium fully endorses.
The June 16th game was Rubalcava's best start since before the rough stretch began — seven innings, zero earned runs, five strikeouts — and the offensive support was emphatic. Lopez hit two home runs off Reeves on consecutive at-bats in the first and second innings, numbers 16 and 17. MacDonald hit a two-run shot in the first. Murguia added his third homer of the season in the fifth. The 9-2 final was the cleanest performance this team produced in the entire month of June, and Rubalcava moving to 7-5 was the headline it deserved.
The June 17th game required more effort than the final line suggests. Espenoza allowed five earned runs in 5.2 innings — a Mejia triple and a Morales double in the sixth doing the decisive damage — and Sacramento entered the ninth inning tied at five before Alonzo stepped to the plate against Jose Reyes and hit a walk-off solo home run to right. The Cathedral crowd that had been sitting through three innings of anxious baseball celebrated with appropriate volume. The sweep was complete, and the winning streak had reached five.
vs. Baltimore: June 18–20 (2-1)
The Baltimore Satans arrived carrying an eight-game winning streak and a legitimate claim on the AL wild card. They left having lost two of three, and the manner of both losses was gratifying.
The June 18th game dismantled Baltimore pitcher Ralevic in the most systematic way available: all four Sacramento runs came via home run. Hernandez in the second, Murguia in the third, Baldelomar in the sixth — all three off Ralevic, who threw eight innings and surrendered a solo or multi-run shot each time the Prayers lineup cycled through the heart of the order. Larson went 6.1 innings, allowed a Jaime two-run shot in the fifth but nothing else consequential, and Salazar and Prieto held the final. The 4-2 win was Sacramento's fifth consecutive.
The June 19th game was St. Clair at his most composed — seven innings, five hits, two earned runs, efficient and unhurried throughout. Musco drove in two, Alonzo hit his fifth home run in the fourth, and Gutierrez closed with two clean innings for his third save. The 4-2 win put the Prayers at 46-26, their best record of the season to that point.
The June 20th game belongs to Carlos Delgado, who pitched eight innings, struck out eight, and allowed one earned run — Lopez's leadoff home run in the first, number eighteen — before Lozano finished the ninth. Delgado was simply the better pitcher on the night, and no further explanation is needed. Andretti allowed three earned runs in 5.2 innings and absorbed the loss. This happens to good teams.
At Salt Lake City: June 22–24 (1-2)
The series at Prophets Stadium will not be remembered fondly, though the third game rescued it from complete disaster.
The June 22nd game was Rubalcava's fourth poor start since early June — four innings, six earned runs, a wild pitch and a balk in the same outing that summarized the evening's character. Scott came in for 0.1 innings and allowed three more. Salazar threw 3.2 clean innings in relief, which was the most professional performance of the night, and the 9-6 loss reactivated every question I raised about the pattern in Rubalcava's outings that concentrates hard contact before the fifth inning.
The June 23rd game was a ten-inning defeat that required extraordinary effort to lose. Sacramento hit three home runs off Agosti in the third inning — Perez, Alonzo, and Musco each connecting to build a 5-1 lead — and then watched Espenoza allow two more home runs in the sixth, watched Gutierrez hold the line in the seventh, watched Prieto surrender a Salinas double in the ninth to blow the lead, and watched Munoz deliver a walk-off single in the tenth. The fact that five runs in the third inning proved insufficient to win this game tells you everything about how the evening unfolded.
The June 24th game was Larson operating as the rotation's steadying force after two consecutive losses — 7.2 innings, two earned runs, clean command — with Murguia's two-run homer in the first providing the early cushion and Rodriguez adding a solo shot in the ninth. Gutierrez threw a clean eighth. Prieto saved it without incident. The 4-2 win was the appropriate response to what had come before it.
vs. Tucson: June 25–27 (2-1)
Three games at Cathedral against the Tucson Cherubs, and the most significant development occurred before the first pitch on June 25th: Steve Dodge was cleared from the IL and available. His ERA at that point was 1.52. His return was the best roster news the Prayers received in all of June.
The June 25th game was Andretti at his finest — eight innings, four hits, zero walks, six strikeouts, ninety pitches — and Dodge's clean ninth inning was the appropriate punctuation to a 4-2 win in which Lopez hit his nineteenth home run leading off the first and Perez added his ninth in the fourth. A complete performance.
The June 26th game was a St. Clair loss following a pattern I have catalogued before. He departed in the fourth inning after allowing four earned runs — Carpenter's two-run home run in the fifth the decisive blow — while Tucson's Nathan Green worked 6.2 innings and allowed only one earned run. Wright and Salazar combined for 4.2 clean innings in relief, Perez hit a two-run home run in the eighth, but the deficit was never fully addressed. Sacramento lost 6-3.
The June 27th game was Rubalcava bouncing back from the June 22nd disaster with seven innings and one earned run, and the offense providing ten runs on fifteen hits with contributions across the entire lineup. Cruz went 2-for-3 with a double and four RBI. MacDonald hit a triple and drove in three. Baldelomar reached base four times and scored twice. The 10-2 win was the kind of comprehensive performance that provides a team with appropriate confidence heading into the next road series.
vs. El Paso: June 28–30 (1-2)
Three games at Cathedral against the El Paso Abbots, who entered at 31-49 with the worst road record in the American League. Sacramento went 1-2. I will account for each game plainly and return to the central reason below.
The June 28th game: Espenoza went 6.1 innings and allowed two earned runs, Gutierrez threw 1.2 clean innings, and Sacramento led 4-2 entering the ninth with Baldelomar's two-run homer providing the margin. Prieto entered, loaded the bases, and allowed the decisive run on a walk to Gillock with two outs — the kind of conclusion that produces a specific type of silence in a ballpark — before Dodge recorded the final out too late to matter. The Abbots won 5-4. Prieto was charged with the blown save and the loss.
The June 29th game: Larson pitched eight innings on 85 pitches, allowed two earned runs, struck out six, and handed a 5-2 lead to the bullpen needing one out in the ninth. Prieto entered. Gil hit a three-run home run. The game went to extra innings. Dodge threw two clean innings in the tenth and eleventh. Ryan entered the twelfth and allowed a walk, a double, and a sacrifice fly before recording two strikeouts that arrived too late to matter. The Abbots won 7-5. Larson's eight innings of quality baseball produced a no-decision. The loss went to Ryan. It should never have required Ryan.
The June 30th game was Andretti winning his eleventh — eight innings, three earned runs, command throughout — while Cruz hit a two-run triple in the sixth, Musco homered in the fifth, and Hernandez hit a two-run shot in the eighth. The 8-4 final was the appropriate conclusion to the first half, and it moved Sacramento to 50-32 entering the break.
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THE STORIES BEHIND THE STANDINGS
Alejandro Lopez — Nineteen home runs. Thirty stolen bases. A .409 on-base percentage. A WAR of 3.8 that leads every position player in the American League by a margin I am no longer comfortable describing as modest. In this stretch alone, Lopez hit two home runs on consecutive at-bats on June 16th against the same pitcher, walked three times on June 25th against a Tucson starter who had correctly identified him as the most dangerous hitter in the lineup, and stole his thirtieth base on June 23rd in a game Sacramento eventually lost, which is the kind of small injustice that follows elite baserunners around all season. The All-Star ballot closes this week. If Lopez is not on the American League starting roster, the selection process needs to explain itself.
Bernardo Andretti — Eleven wins, four losses, a 3.09 ERA, and the most consistent pitcher on this staff across the entire first half. In this stretch he went 3-1 with quality starts in three of four outings — June 15 (7 IP, 2 ER), June 25 (8 IP, 2 ER, 0 BB), and June 30 (8 IP, 3 ER) — and his only loss came on the night Delgado was simply better. He does not generate the attention that Rubalcava's bad starts produce, and he does not generate the concern that Espenoza's volatility deserves. He takes the ball every fifth day and more often than not makes the evening manageable. At thirty-two years old, this is the best sustained stretch of his career, and I intend to keep saying so until the people who vote on awards start paying attention.
Steve Dodge — The return from the IL on June 25th was the best news the Prayers bullpen received in the entire month of June, and the subsequent appearances — clean innings, zero earned runs, saves collected without drama — confirm that whatever injury sent him to the IL on June 9th did not diminish what makes him the most dependable reliever on this staff. His ERA is 1.52. He has converted five saves without a blown opportunity. He has allowed one inherited runner to score across his entire season. The events of June 28th and 29th illustrate with clarity what this bullpen looks like with Dodge versus what it looks like without him, and the contrast is not subtle.
Robby Larson — This section exists because Robby Larson deserves it, not because his statistics demand one. His record is 6-5. His ERA is 3.17. His last two starts — 7.2 innings on June 24th, 8 innings on June 29th — produced quality efforts that resulted in a win and a no-decision respectively, and the no-decision came because of events in the ninth inning that Larson had no part in producing and could not have prevented. In 110.2 innings this season he has allowed fewer hits per nine than any other starter on the staff, walks the fewest batters, and posts the best ground ball rate in the rotation. The 6-5 record is the most misleading number on this team's pitching ledger. I'll keep saying so until the wins catch up to the performance.
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WHERE THINGS COULD GO WRONG
Luis Prieto cannot be trusted with a lead right now — Four blown saves. A 5.35 ERA. An approach in high-leverage situations that increasingly resembles a pitcher operating without conviction. I have been careful not to condemn Prieto before the evidence required it. The evidence now requires something, and what it requires is an honest accounting of what is happening in the ninth inning of Sacramento Prayers games.
The June 28th and June 29th blown saves are not isolated statistical events. They are games Sacramento should have won and did not because the pitcher assigned to protect leads in the ninth inning did not protect them. On June 29th, Larson threw 85 pitches across eight innings against the worst road team in the American League, left with a three-run lead, and the result was a loss. That outcome is not acceptable, and anyone in the Sacramento organization who claims otherwise is not being honest.
The question going into the second half is not whether Prieto deserves a conversation about his role — he does, and that conversation is overdue. The question is what the alternative looks like and who makes the call. Dodge is the obvious answer. His 27-game stretch with a 0.39 ERA is the most compelling argument available in the Prayers' own bullpen. Whether Aces and the front office act on that argument before another winnable game is surrendered in the ninth inning is the defining bullpen decision of this season. The clock on that decision is running.
Espenoza's June — Mario Espenoza went 1-2 in this stretch with rough outings on June 17th (5.2 IP, 5 ER) and June 23rd (5.2 IP, 5 ER) framing a June 28th start in which he was effective before the bullpen undid the result. His ERA climbed from 3.35 to 3.81 over this period, and eighteen home runs allowed in 106.1 innings is a rate that points to a pitcher who is leaving balls elevated in the zone against lineups that know how to punish that tendency. Espenoza's best starts this year have been models of ground-ball efficiency. His worst starts begin in the first inning and do not recover. The gap between those two versions is the gap between a third starter and a fifth starter, and this staff cannot afford the latter version in July and August.
Rubalcava's alternating current — The pattern in this stretch: June 16th, seven innings, zero earned runs. June 22nd, four innings, six earned runs. June 27th, seven innings, one earned run. Good, bad, good — the alternating sequence that has defined his June. His WAR of 4.0 leads the pitching staff by a full win over the next closest arm. His strikeout rate is the best in the rotation. His ERA is 3.24. He is still the best pitcher on this roster when he is operating as the best pitcher on this roster. The concern is that "when" is doing considerable work in that sentence, and neither the coaching staff nor I have yet identified why the bad starts happen when they happen.
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THE LEAGUE AT LARGE
The division lead expanded from one and a half games to four games over this stretch, and it is worth being honest about how much of that expansion was Sacramento's doing versus Fort Worth's undoing. The Spirits went 4-11 over their last fifteen games and have now lost four consecutive entering July. They are 46-36, which remains a legitimate record, but the Prayers did not lap them so much as Fort Worth stumbled and Sacramento maintained its pace. Both things are true. Four games is a comfortable lead. It is not an insulated one.
San Jose at 45-35 deserves more attention from the Sacramento fan base than it currently receives. The Demons have won six of their last ten, hold the AL wild card lead, and own a 4-3 head-to-head advantage over the Prayers this season — meaning Sacramento is below .500 in direct play against the team immediately chasing them in the wild card standings as well. The four-game home series at Cathedral Stadium the week of July 15th is the most consequential series on the Prayers' schedule in the next month. If Sacramento wins that series, the division is managed. If Sacramento loses three of four, the lead is one game and the race is open in a way it has not been since April. Circle the dates.
Brooklyn at 49-31 continues to lead the AL East and represents the most likely World Series opponent from the American League if the Prayers sustain their position. The AL wild card race has become a genuine three-team contest — San Jose and Baltimore at 45-35, Fort Worth at 46-36, all within one game of the two available spots — and that race will generate drama through September regardless of what Sacramento does in the West. Any organization with October ambitions should be monitoring all three clubs.
Phoenix at 52-29 is the best team in baseball and it is not close. The Crucifixes are 8-2 in their last ten, and if these two franchises meet in October, it will be the series this league has been building toward all season.
One item from the local desk: Gil Caliari's email to manager Jimmy Aces — expressing openness to a contract extension contingent on the right offer — found its way into the hands of the Sacramento media this week. Caliari is posting a 4.50 ERA and has been deployed in low-leverage situations for most of June. Whether the organization extends him or declines is a front office question I have no standing to influence. What I will say is that leaked correspondence in the middle of a pennant race is a distraction the Prayers do not need, and resolving it — in either direction — before July becomes August is the prudent course.
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THE MAILBAG — Because some questions deserve a real answer.
From "Fifty-Win Freddie" Yamamoto of Curtis Park, a retired actuary who has been calculating Luis Prieto's rolling save conversion rate on a daily basis since April 1st and will recite the figure to four decimal places if you make the mistake of making eye contact: "Claude — I've done the math. Prieto's blown save rate is now the worst among closers with twenty or more save opportunities in the AL. Am I wrong to be worried?"
Freddie, you are not wrong, and I am genuinely relieved that someone with your professional background has applied appropriate rigor to this question, because the beat writers covering this team have been charitable to a fault. Four blown saves in twenty-five opportunities is sixteen percent, which is not a number any organization designs its ninth-inning strategy around when it has pennant aspirations. The ERA of 5.35 is the more alarming figure, because it reflects not just the blown saves but a general pattern of allowing too much hard contact in moments when hard contact is the thing you most cannot allow. I do not know whether Aces will move Prieto to a different role in the second half. I know that he should, and I know that Freddie Yamamoto's spreadsheet agrees with me.
From "Walk-Off Wendy" Castellanos of East Sacramento, who was sitting in section 114 on June 17th when Alonzo's walk-off landed and has described the moment in granular detail to an estimated forty people at last count, none of whom have asked her to stop: "Rafael Alonzo just keeps delivering in the biggest moments. Is he the most clutch player on this team?"
Wendy, "clutch" is a concept I approach with caution because the statistical evidence for its existence as a stable and repeatable skill is more contested than its popularity in casual conversation suggests. What I will say is that Alonzo's June 17th walk-off — a solo shot in the ninth off Reyes that turned a 5-5 tie into a 6-5 win — was delivered with the kind of compact, unhurried swing that suggests a hitter who does not alter his approach in high-leverage situations, which is the closest measurable thing to what people mean when they say clutch. He is batting .300 with six home runs, a .797 OPS, and the most dependable defensive presence at catcher this organization has had in a decade. He is not the most valuable player on this team — Lopez occupies that address — but he is the hitter I would least want to face in the ninth inning of a game I needed to protect. Section 114 has good taste.
From "Series Split" Steve Ohanesian of Elk Grove, who has attended all four home games against Fort Worth this season, considers himself "the most qualified civilian observer of the Sacramento-Fort Worth rivalry currently operating in the greater capital region," and has the ticket stubs in a binder to support this claim: "The head-to-head against Fort Worth is 4-8. With a four-game lead, do we actually need to fix that to win the division?"
Steve, the overall record overrides the head-to-head in the standings, and four games is a real lead regardless of how it was assembled. So in that strict sense: no, Sacramento does not need to win the next Fort Worth series to win the division. But what the 4-8 record tells you is that Fort Worth has a blueprint for beating this version of the Prayers and has executed it eight times. If these two teams meet in October — not impossible given Fort Worth's position in the wild card race — that blueprint is the most important document in the opposing manager's hands. The 4-8 record does not cost Sacramento the division. It raises the stakes of every future meeting, and the next time these clubs share a field, Sacramento cannot split the series. It needs to win it. Keep the binder handy. There are more chapters to write.
From Phil Davenport of Land Park, founder and sole member of "Robby's Rescue Squad," a one-man advocacy organization dedicated to ensuring that Robby Larson receives adequate run support and competent ninth-inning bullpen work, whose charter documents were drafted on a Tuesday night in late May and have not yet been ratified by anyone: "On June 29th, Larson threw eight innings and the team still lost. Is there any justice in this sport?"
Phil, the Rescue Squad's dedication is noted and the membership rolls deserve to be longer than they are. The June 29th loss was the most unjust result in this entire fifteen-game stretch — eight innings of quality work on 85 pitches against the worst road team in the American League, a three-run lead handed to the bullpen, and the outcome was a no-decision and a twelve-inning defeat. There is no justice in baseball, and Robby Larson's 6-5 record is the clearest evidence I can offer for that proposition. The Rescue Squad's mission is sound. I cannot promise the outcomes will improve. I can promise I will keep reporting the truth, and the truth is that Larson has pitched like a winning pitcher for most of this season and the scoreboard has not consistently agreed.
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Claude Playball has covered Sacramento Prayers baseball for eleven years. The Hot Corner publishes throughout the season. Questions and correspondence are welcome.