2024 Season Preview - Part 3
In what is definitely not an instance of "OOTP preseason predictions clickbait", the three teams that have combined to win the last five championships are all in this group, not in the top 5 group.
LUTRUL BC
Ransu, RA
2023: 89-101 (12th)
Seasons in EL: 19
Best finish: 1st (2011)
Payroll: $91.4 million (10th)
Manager: Yiyif Shuma (1st year)
The list of teams that have been in the EL longer than Lutrul uninterrupted is as follows: Keleri, Mighty Oaks, Tsapna. They're part of the furniture at this point, and their colors of black and blue (shared by Tsapna and Shunna Eagles) feel like the unofficial color palette of the Elite League.
Lineup (6th):
SS Tilutsu Hofohe - 2B Hypuse Toyerno - LF Fayafo Sheotel
1B Ilye Nofetso - RF Tarenu Chyfatsa - 3B Tsosotal Mpetu
C Otsiku Kiwarshi - CF Noi Wamia
This will be Lutrul's first season since the departure of CF Ipitashi Rerawe in free agency. His 2018 MVP season, his first at Lutrul after 6 with Mighty Oaks, was one of the greatest individual seasons in EL history, but he was slowed by injury in more recent years and had regressed to a much more underwhelming (but still above average) hitter. This is Nofetso's team to lead now. He had a terrible first half of the season in 2023, but rebounded quite nicely in the second half and could still be "the guy" on a good team.
The other players in the top 5 of the lineup are all new, with Hofohe coming from Muni and the others from tier 3 or lower.
Rotation (17th):
Otsi Roshoshe - Pakaka Mutsetsi - Lasoshela Tymuwe - Shina Kemo - Tsatso Rapimwio
Roshoshe came into the rotation fairly early last season and did enough to be considered a positive asset. He's the only one of these guys I can be confident will have a positive WAR in 2024.
Closer: Chitipa Fyhy (15th)
Fyhy, a free agent acquisition from Akashemo United, feels like he should be rated higher than 15th on the closers list. Overall, the bullpen should be better than the rotation.
2024 prediction: 94-96 (10th)
A ton of turnover at Lutrul this season, but they should be able to outscore some of their pitching problems and finish roughly where they've finished recently.
AMNANACHE BC
Ransu, RA
2023: 91-99 (11th)
Seasons in EL: 28
Best finish: 2nd (1999, 2000)
Payroll: $101.7 million (9th)
Manager: Petsyfu Chorao (11th year)
It's been a frustrating couple of years at Amnanache, where the balance between a very strong pitching staff and an incredibly weak lineup has been frustrating to fans, and led to a couple of years pretty much right at .500.
Lineup (9th):
1B Taekeche Punisha - SS Shaho Shosisi - 2B Peche Iyikio
CF Marte Choap - 3B Ripke Kaitsomine - LF Toliwe Hokuta
RF Chukatu Mofatsitsali - C Yatil Rima
With a little bit of money coming off the books, people around the team in North Ransu would have been clamoring for the team to cash in on a couple of strong hitters to surround homegrown star Peche Iyikio. Choap and Kaitsomine were the high-profile acquisitions - Choap a 16-year-old amateur, while the 21-year-old Kaitsomine was a superstar at the lower tiers. Shosisi, the elder statesman at 34, returns to Amnanache after one year at Westline & should be an upgrade at shortstop. Overall, the offense should be much improved, and much more like a typical team of this caliber.
Rotation (5th):
Laotso Tirionu - Epencho Latsychano - Kafaki Kohopa - Kiosho Epofemi - Uriyoko Tselsiko
The three horsemen have been reduced to two with Tsai Reyolafa gone, but he was the worst of the three in 2023 anyway so maybe that's fine. This is a big year for the pitching staff, with Tirionu a potential free agent after this season (he has a player option for 2025). Epofemi, brought in from Mighty Oaks, actually made a full complement of EL starts for the first time in his career given a pretty extensive injury history.
Closer: Onu Aseho (11th)
Amnanache brought in former National closer Fapasile Opopa in the offseason, but is going with the inexperienced Aseho at the back end to begin the year. The bullpen overall will be above average - not to the strength of the rotation, mind.
2024 prediction: 97-93 (9th)
I really like what Amnanache did this offseason - I think they might be a tick better than this. I do feel fairly confident that they'll be above .500 at least.
MIGHTY OAKS BC
Aroketsil, KX
2023: 112-78 (4th)
Seasons in EL: all 34
Best finish: 1st (2008, 2013, 2014, 2017, 2020, 2021, 2022)
Payroll: $171.6 million (1st)
Manager: Tishe Loap (2nd year)
Just to fully set the scene, Mighty Oaks haven't finished as low as 8th in over two decades - 2003, which was also the last time they won fewer than 100 games. We'll get a little bit into why I think OOTP's prediction is inaccurate, but if it were accurate, it would be basically unprecedented for one of two teams that has played in every single season of EL baseball.
Lineup (15th):
1B Yalofe Uepepa - 2B Niresilo Fetiloa - RF Peyaka Sefenera
LF Tula Misha - C Metsifu Olufapo - CF Nasi Salama
3B Tsorope Mametsiu - SS Ketsafumo Potamesa
The Oaks offense was unexpectedly bad in 2023 (13th) and that's predicted to become normal - presumably, this is the primary cause of a predicted record so close to .500. Somp Awia was a huge disappointment in '23, to the point where he's starting the year on the bench in favor of Uepepa, who started just 22 games last year. 3B Netomue Kilutsa will be back from his torn ACL in a couple of weeks, which will help - the less time that Tsorope Mametsiu spends on the field this year, the better.
Rotation (10th):
Notsimi Feshasu - Palfa Ninelhepi - Siteno Aefep - Ekana Muchlap - Nymafopu Nohatesa
The top three are known entities by now, with Feshasu one of the republic's top pitchers. Muchlap is a fresh rookie, though not one that commanded a signing bonus - he's playing for the league minimum half a million, an absolute beanpole at 6'7", 195, and could be interesting. Nohatesa has been in the Oaks system for six years without actually ever pitching - he'll need to make it work until free agent signing Zhitao Imatsa is ready to debut in mid-May.
Closer: Tsisa Onetatsa (6th)
Previous closer Autsu Sikiura was traded to a lower tier in the offseason. Onetatsa is quite talented, but had an ERA over 5 last season.
2024 prediction: 98-92 (8th)
Even with the decline in lineup quality the last couple of years, this sort of drop feels improbable.
NATIONAL BC
Shunna, XU
2023: 128-62 (1st)
Seasons in EL: 32
Best finish: 1st (2023)
Payroll: $137.7 million (5th)
Manager: Teshepo Riparchua (6th year)
Speaking of teams projected to suffer a big dropoff out of nowhere, here are the defending champions! National's first title came on the heels of their big spending spree in the 2021-22 offseason, which saw them vault from 13th to 2nd in the 2022 season. Easy to forget that they played in the Second League in both 2017 and 2019 (though otherwise they've always been an EL team).
Lineup (11th):
SS Pelik Yelishike - 3B Anesa Mikesash - CF Solo Sipet
1B Chorep Toyerno - 2B Hamafme Nokolo - RF Chulakoyo Sapolepu
LF Solofa Yalai - C Chafosu Seshate
Note: this will be the opening day lineup, as Pumona Kakosuta serves the final game of a 3-game suspension earned during a bench-clearing brawl in a meaningless game against Cheshek in the season's final weekend. I'm not sure if the tepid lineup projection considers Kakosuta or not. He will likely be the cleanup hitter and everyday right fielder, sending Yalai to a bench role.
This is one of the EL's oldest lineups, with Yelishike, Mikesash, Sapolepu and Yalai all 30 or older. Kiowu Rorale is a big loss, having signed with Meka, and the signings of Nokolo and Sapolepu don't really offset that loss. A full season of Toyerno might - he emerged in the second half last year as a rookie and should provide more raw numbers than he did in 2023.
Rotation (8th):
Kiro Ponarf - Santa Ketitu - Latsal Awia - Wucha Tekake - Shashacheta Kakosuta
Last year's National rotation was torn apart by injuries, and they're still dealing with some of that. Lohy Awia will be out until late April/early May, and Wicharu Chishatopi may not pitch at all this season. Ponarf surprised everyone last year, myself included, and became the most-relied-upon starter for the season's first half, then got shut down for the season in July with shoulder soreness; Ketitu didn't throw a pitch after May. (How did they win the title again?)
Tekake is a fresh rookie who could be a future ace at some point, while Kakosuta is a former Akashemo starter who spent the last five years tearing it up with Shepero (Southern Premier League).
Closer: Sefape Utuewe (16th)
Provided the cupboard doesn't need to be raided to fill the rotation again, the National bullpen should be quite good. Utuewe took over the closer's role last season when Fapasile Opopa was out injured and did pretty well. I don't know why he's ranked so low, TBH.
2024 prediction: 107-83 (7th)
The defending champions come in at a projected 7th place. Not saying that's impossible, but the defending champion team hasn't fallen as far as 7th since Lutrul surprisingly won the 2011 championship, then were a more typical 7th the next season. National was
somewhat of a surprise in 2023, but they did finish second the prior season so I wouldn't bet on a finish outside the top 3-4.
TSAPNA BC
Ransu, RA
2023: 102-88 (7th)
Seasons in EL: 32
Best finish: 1st (2012, 2019)
Payroll: $141.5 million (4th)
Manager: Tuwafo Rekute (1st year)
2023 was kind of a lost season in Tsapna-land - there were good performances on both sides of the ball, but the team got off to a slow start and never resembled a championship contender for some reason. That snapped a streak of six straight top-4 finishes.
Lineup (5th):
LF Uoro Toyerno - 2B Lawori El - RF Iti Tashete
1B Safishi Ifata - C Pusituli Fomochi - 3B Pomi Mawotsi
CF Chiati Rolei - SS Kysatse Nysotof
Longtime starting catcher Nak Fatohatse was probably due to be upgraded on, so the team splashed on bringing in Fomochi from Cheshek, a pretty clear upgrade. These guys look the same otherwise, with Uoro Toyerno, last year's big revelation in the cleanup spot, looking to move to leadoff this season.
Rotation (3rd):
Feli Ykiteno - Soitu Chesashomo - Lomunu Awia - Setsinak Perano - Tupae Epofemi
Ideally, the ace would be Mua Wyranu, who threw only 5 innings before suffering a torn labrum in March 2023, but an injury setback over the offseason required surgery and he will miss the entire 2024 season as well. Perano also missed a good chunk of last year to injury, but was the EL's ERA leader at the time of his injury and looks to be back to full strength.
Ykiteno is, at age 28, expected to become a full-time starter for the first time in his career, a former Reliever of the Year winner at Keleri in 2016. The rest of these guys will be quite solid - in my opinion, Epofemi is the league's best #5 starter. And of course, Lomunu Awia is the only pitcher to have won Pitcher of the Year four times,
Closer: Fumiecho Hakoheso (3rd)
Last year's closer, Maho Narupu, is at Amnanache now, and Hakoheso had an injury-shortened sophomore season, throwing only 15 games. The talent is definitely there, though.
2024 prediction: 109-81 (6th)
I can imagine a wide range of Tsapna outcomes this season, so it'll be important for them to get off to that good start this year. That's possible - they won't play a real title contender until visiting Keleri in their sixth series.