[Pelican]

I think you are on the right track. I interpret extreme risk to mean that the player may not reach his potential, may not develop at all, or could develop in unforeseen (and not helpful) ways. It should make you think twice about that yawning gap between Potential and Current ability.

This is why I tend to focus on older amateur players with more of a proven track record, preferably in a top (i.e., SEC) college program. Less risk. Higher floor, but in many cases lower ceiling. Plus the college junior could be ready to play in MLB in a year or two. The high school senior is many years away, best case.

However I will make an exception for international amateurs with high Potential. With a sixteen-year-old, the risk is still considerable. But these guys play baseball year-round, and tend to have advanced skills. This experience gives them a decent floor, and a higher ceiling for many.

It comes down to what your level of risk tolerance is, and also how much patience you have. No question it's fun to see a guy beat the odds and become a star in your system. It's why you'll spend time on scouting and development.