OOTP Developments Forums - View Single Post - Statistical accuracy comparison between DMB and OOTP for 2023 season

Garlon · 12-09-2025, 07:06 PM

The sum of the W delta for both DMB and OOTP both must actually be 0 because for every win for a team will result in a loss for another team. The only way OOTP could have generated a sum of 3 more wins is if there were three game #163 tie breaker games played in your tests.

OOTZP ended up on average with +53 runs scored for the league and DMB ended up on average at -155. Both are excellent results. Since there are 30 teams this comes out to +1.7 runs per team and for DMB -5.1 runs per team for the season.

In 2023 the Orioles Pythagorean Record was 94-68 but they went 101-61, so they were 7 wins better than expected. The Royals in 2023 were actually -8 wins worse than expected and the Padres were -10 wins worse than expected, so it is no surprise to see that they performed better than their actual record in both DMB and OOTP.

12-09-2025, 07:06 PM	#2
Garlon Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 4,266	The sum of the W delta for both DMB and OOTP both must actually be 0 because for every win for a team will result in a loss for another team. The only way OOTP could have generated a sum of 3 more wins is if there were three game #163 tie breaker games played in your tests. OOTZP ended up on average with +53 runs scored for the league and DMB ended up on average at -155. Both are excellent results. Since there are 30 teams this comes out to +1.7 runs per team and for DMB -5.1 runs per team for the season. In 2023 the Orioles Pythagorean Record was 94-68 but they went 101-61, so they were 7 wins better than expected. The Royals in 2023 were actually -8 wins worse than expected and the Padres were -10 wins worse than expected, so it is no surprise to see that they performed better than their actual record in both DMB and OOTP.