Hey Todd, just circling back now that you’ve added more detail — and hopefully I can clear up some of the frustration you’re feeling with Ethan’s development path and your other draftees.
A lot of us have been exactly where you are: player performs well, you put him in good situations, morale’s healthy, coaching setup is strong… and then OOTP just decides “nah, he’s not that guy anymore.” It feels like the game is punishing you for doing the right things.
But the important thing to know is:
the potential drops you’re seeing don’t always mean the player actually got worse.
Most of the time it means your evaluation of him got corrected.
A couple points from experience that apply directly to what you’re seeing:
1. Early prospect stars are usually inflated until scouting accuracy stabilises
If Ethan was showing 4–5 stars early in your save, and that was off a Low/Normal scouting report, that number was almost certainly optimistic. When the accuracy eventually hit High/Very High, the scout basically “tightened” the projection to something more realistic.
OOTP doesn’t show a “scouting correction” animation — it just drops the stars. Looks like regression, but it’s often just the fog clearing.
2. Stats don’t drive development the way people expect
This one always catches people - it did me!:
- Great stats at a level
- Playing every day
- Happy morale
- Good team environment
…none of those guarantee ratings growth.
What actually drives development are:
- hidden talent rolls
- work ethic
- intelligence
- health
- being at the appropriate level
- scouting clarity
- how the internal development RNG treats him over time
You can do everything right and still have the talent rolls land low. It’s frustrating, but it’s also OOTP modeling real-life bust rates.
3. Being “held” at one level isn’t automatically safer - I ruined so many early players in my early saves getting this wrong
You said you didn’t want to rush him — totally fair — but a quick thing to consider:
If Ethan’s ratings already aligned with AAA competition, keeping him in AA for too long can actually slow development, not help it. The game looks at ratings vs level difficulty, not stats vs level.
But that also cuts both ways: pushing him too high too early can compress his potential downward.
It’s really about matching the level to where his ratings actually sit, not where you hope his potential lands. This is where using the button that enables you to compare their rating at a A level or AA level or MLB level etc.
4. Personality matters more than people think
Two quiet killers of blue-chip prospects:
- Low Work Ethic
- Low Intelligence
Even top picks can drift downwards if they don’t have the underlying personality to support growth. You mentioned he’s never been a backup and always got playing time — that’s good — but if WE/INT is mediocre, it’ll limit how well he converts that playing time into actual ratings growth.
If you haven’t checked those yet, it’s worth a look.
5. Not all potential drops mean the player is doomed
- One thing I’ve learned: if a prospect drops from “future superstar” to “maybe solid regular,” it doesn’t mean you failed his development — it might just mean the early projection was too optimistic.
- What matters more than the stars:
- Are his actual ratings still moving?
- Is he still young for the level?
- Does he have any standout tools left (contact/power/eye for hitters; stuff/movement/control for pitchers)?
- Does he still have a realistic big-league role?
- If the ratings are still creeping up, you still might end up with an everyday contributor.
- If the ratings have basically flatlined for a year+… that’s usually the real sign he’s topped out.
6. You haven’t “ruined” the player
Based on what you’ve described:
- You matched his assignments logically
- You gave him opportunities
- Morale was healthy
- Team environment was good
- You didn’t rush him to full-time MLB
- You’ve built a solid minor-league coaching group
What you’re seeing is much more likely a combination of:
- scouting normalising his early inflated projections
- hidden development rolls leaning negative
- personality × development speed
- potential band tightening
- volatility that OOTP deliberately builds in so not every #1 pick becomes a franchise cornerstone
It’s not you doing something “wrong.”
It’s just OOTP being OOTP.
Hope that helps.. this one resonates with me.. because i reckon understanding player evaluation and development as two distinct yet connected things was a breakthrough for me.. and my drafting and trading has become objectively better as a result.