BNN Report
News from the CBO, Minors, CCBL, and CYL
by Nat Wright-Kawolski
18 September 2316
CBO Playoffs Preview - Association Championship Series Round
NCA: #3 Easy Town Assaultrons (69-61) vs #1 Malden Grognaks (86-44)
Season Series: Malden 6, Easy Town 4
May 19-21 @Mal: ET 2-0, Mal 5-0, Mal 5-1
July 3-4 @ET: ET 5-0, Mal 5-4
August 25-27 @ET: ET 9-3, Mal 11-4, Mal 5-1
August 31-September 1 @Mal: Mal 6-4, ET 4-3
Analysis
Before the season started, not many expected Malden to be here, but they did expect Easy Town to be here. The Assaultrons were PAM's pick to be the CBO's best. However, in the regular season, the Grognaks achieved that mark, tying for 2nd all-time in NCA history with 86 victories (Nordhagen Beach in 2310 set the NCA record with 88; Vault 81's 2314 squad set the all-time record with 95).
In the regular season matchups, Malden won the series, 6-4. There was a pattern in the first three series of the Assaultrons winning Game 1 and then Malden winning the rest, but that flip-flopped in their final two-game set. The Grognaks won the splits, including the two end-of-the-season series where it was 3-2. In a seven-game breakdown, that would calculate to an average of 4-2 advantage.
Looking at the lineup matchups, Malden seems to have most of the advantages in hitting talent. One interesting matchup to watch is the assumed 1-2 voting of the Nuka-Hitter Award between the Trons' Eden Babz and the Grognaks' Jacob Tarberry. Babz hits for average and stole a record number of bases. Tarberry was the top slugger in the NCA.
In the regular season matchups, regular players did not have any stunning stats. Finnan Hunt for Easy Town hit .333 with five RBI ion 33 at-bats. Halep Gutteridge (.353/1/4) did well in just 17 at-bats. Babz only hit .237 with a home run and five RBI.
For the Grognaks, Lance Tinter was lights out, going 16 for 33 (.485) with two home runs and six RBI. Tarberry was second in average, hitting .303 with eight RBI. CF Jurgen Windcaller struggled the most, hitting just .103 in 29 at-bats against Easy Town.
Pitching is a different story, and we featured the pitching results during the season. Despite Malden winning the season series, the Assaultrons' starting pitching fared better. Expected Game 1 starter, Lonely Gale, was 2-0 with a 1.76 ERA in two starts. Game 3's expected starter, Tarzan Rogers, was 2-1 with a 1.52 ERA. Cohort Williams, the expected Game 2 starter, was 0-1 with a 3.97 ERA in two starts.
For Malden's three playoff starters, Hrye Caje, Game 1's expected starter, had the most success, going 1-1 with a 3.45 ERA. Game 2 starter, Vault Boy Barnette, was injured most of the season and only pitched in two regular-season games, once in August and another in September. He never faced Easy Town all season but did look good in those two late starts and one playoff appearance. Storm Steel, the expected Game 3 starter. was 0-2 with a 6.35 ERA against the Assaultrons.
Prediction
We are starting to see that PAM has the foresight that we do not. Thus her claim that the predictions are based on millions of simulations and this final result is the average of those infinite possibilities. She had Easy Town vs Quincy in her Sole Survivor Series. The Grognaks owned the season series, but they were not all-powerful. Overall, Malden possesses more overall talent, as we have seen from OSA scouting reports. Yet, in the three Starters vs Starters matchups, we think the Trons have the advantage necessary. Despite the patterns, we think the Assaultrons have the team to take any seven-game series they play. Easy Town 4, Malden 3
SCA: #6 Quincy Gunners (68-62) vs #4 Glowing Sea Radscorpions (73-57)
Season Series: Glowing Sea 3, Quincy 1
May 29-30 @GS: GS 3-2, GS 3-0
August 9-10 @ Qui: Qui 6-1, GS 5-4
Analysis
Just like Easy Town in the NCA, Quincy was PAM's choice to be the top team in the SCA and the team expected to face the Trons in the Sole Survivor Series. Glowing Sea was picked to be the 6th seed, yet got here as the #4 seed by defeating their nemesis Diamond City and then upsetting the defending champions, Vault 81. Now the Radscorpions' challenge is to prevent PAM's prediction from coming true.
In the regular season, the Scorpions had the advantage, 3-1, including a 2-0 mark at home. Offense was hard to come by, especially in the Dome where it was a 6-2 scoring advantage for Glowing Sea. In a season of pitching, again, the matchups seem to largely come down to how well the pitchers handle each other.
So let's start with the pitching here. Both teams had great pitchng with mediocre hitting. The Radscorpions had the most disproportionate success rate, finishing 16 games above .500 despite only having a +18 run difference (472-454). Comparatively, the Gunners at six games above .500 had a +37 run difference (514-477).
In the regular season matchups, all three of the Glowing Sea starters had a start, but only the Gunners' Make Money made a start (two) of the three expected pitchers. With Kid Boots Appling (0-1, 1.35) out for the rest of the season, Fosdyke Rochambeau gets one of the starting nods and is expected to pitch in Game 2.Game 3's expected starter, College Luckyman, had a great season, but never faced the Scorpions. Quincy's expected Game 1 starter, Make Money, was 0-0 in two starts with a 0.60 ERA. He could not get a decision because he left one game ahead 1-0 that the Gunners dropped 3-2 and another that was tied 4-4 (all four runs unearned due to a two-out error).
The Radscorpions' three starters all pitched well against Quincy in their three starts. Game 1 starter, Alex Language, had a no-decision with a 2.25 ERA in his one start. Game 2's expected starter, Quay Swimmer, was 0-0 with a 2.57 ERA. Game 3's expected starter, Hot Lips Houlihan was 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in pitching eight shutout innings in the 3-0 win.
Looking at the hitting matchups, there is a good balance throughout each of the lineups. The Scorpions have the overall talent advantage, though Quincy has better productivity. For example, there is an "incomplete" in looking at the expected 5th hitters. Quincy rookie RF Brad Hop (.309/3/6 in 55 at-bats) was called up to the team in mid-August with the roster expansion and now appears entrenched as the starter in RF. Glowing Sea's C Yvuh Jet (.249/11/47) is one of the best-hitting catchers in the CBO but had a down season and struggled a lot with the raised mound. The Gunners' catcher, Sleve McDichael (.287/8/47), had a better overall year but hits 7th.
Prediction
Glowing Sea is making its SCA Championship Series debut. The Gunners were here just two seasons ago, taking the SCACS before falling to The Slog in the Sole Survivor Series. In 2316, the Rascorpions look to have the advantage, winning three of the four where pitching was king. Quincy is the preseason pick to win the SCA. They also had much better hitting and almost equal pitching to the Scorpions over the course of the season. We do not know. All hail our robot psychic? Go with playoff history? Realize that the Radscorpions are playing well and have been highly consistent? OK, we leave it to a cap flip. Glowing Sea 4, Quincy 3