You bring up an interesting point about the seasonal variance modifier. I know they definitely have a "hot" or "cold" modifier. I wonder if they randomize that at the start of the season for every player - so maybe we perceive it as a seasonal variance, but it's just because they start out with a negative modifier, making it hard for them to get back on track. Hence why my Honus Wagner has repeatedly started out like he's Javy Baez from the last 2 seasons.
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Originally Posted by Sinnerman
Variances in performance are obviously manufactured (randomly?) pre season. If my Alex Rodriguez 101 is constantly subpar all season long, including his negative defense!!! this in not a (random?) game by game "variance" in RNG. Do you not question the simulation when you see a Wagner with -1.5 WAR in high silver league? You really think that is game by game variance...
Your argument only holds if the game to game variances in outcomes are beyond the realms of reality. I propose that due to the consistency of player cards either sucking or excelling for entire seasons, there is more to it than you think. I am convinced that there IS a season by season modifier to each card that determines it's performance relative to others.
When top tier players consistently perform poorly (or subpar players consistently overperform) over a season something is going on besides "bad luck". Unless your definition of "bad luck" is whatever your simulation decides a cards fate pre-season.
EDIT: I'd like to clarify. TLDR minus ranting... Month by month performance of cards is usually somewhat consistent over a season. This indicates a seasonal variance being more important than game by game variance in the game engine.
EDIT 2: By seasonal variance I mean there is a seasonal modifier to cards probably based on "luck".
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