|
Previous posts to increase understanding of the effects of auto-calc have shown that auto=calc alters the effect of some strategy settings and completely over rides some others. This post addresses its affect on three year and five year recalc.
It's a reasonable assumption that using three year or five year recalc on player ratings provides a smoothing effect. That is the function of a moving average. But a league doesn't perform better or worse on its own. It performs better or worse based on how the players perform. Auto-calc over rides the effects of the moving average on players in favor of keeping every league performing as a historical replay league.
A good three year period to consider is 1976 - 1978. During those years average HRs per team was 93, 140, and 114 with a three year average of 116. On one year recalc for 1977, players are rated to produce 140 HRs/Team. On three year recalc they're rated to produce 116 HRs/Team. Yet with auto-calc teams will produce about 140 HRs/Team whether the players are rated for 140 or 116.
The graph below shows that there is no smoothing effect with three year recalc. The output of both it and one year recalc closely track historic output. Ratings based on a moving average do not deliver what is expected when auto-calc is used.
Presumably auto-calc was introduced to adjust for errors in the data. It does this well. The problem is differences in ratings intended by the user are treated as errors by auto-calc which over rides them.
|