[Sweed]

Originally Posted by phenom

Have you evaluated the timing of the balks? Because they never seem to happen with one out and a runner on first in an 8-2 game, followed by two consecutive outs to end the inning.

They generally seem to be part of a larger blowup in an inning. How am I supposed to quantify that?

And again, if I haven't made it clear, there's no obvious things like pitcher fatigue or anything like that.

To be clear my post you quoted was answering someone that said balks were 10X real numbers but that seemed to be fixed. My data shows it wasn't a problem in autocalced games since v12. It was not linked by me to big innings with users getting different results than cpu teams, nor when balks, IF hits, wp, etc. occurred in games being played.

But since you asked..

Have you? When you're up in a game 12-0 in the fifth inning and your P balks to you remember it the same as balking in the 9th up 3-2?

Sorting team pitching is somewhat limited without the ability to sort by outs/runners on base. I wish those options were there. So, the only thing I can tell you is 40 games into my current season, playing out every inning of every game, I have been called for 1 balk. Cpu teams while playing against me have been called for 2. Ten cpu teams in the league have been called 3 or 4 times. Five cpu teams have zero balks.

Originally Posted by phenom

And this is exactly my point. These things just feel wrong and feel like they're happening an irregular number of times, and others seem to feel the same way, but it's ignored because I haven't done a comprehensive study of it. I just want to play the game without feeling like the unluckiest manager on the planet. The solution to my problem probably isn't a change in the game itself, because I honestly don't know how you find what causes this, but I do believe it is real. The solution to my problem is likely only understanding what level of this I choose to tolerate.

I don't mind people thinking I'm wrong, but casting me aside only because of some arbitrary standard of evaluation that I haven't met is bothersome. I've already considered and investigated everything suggested in this thread and much, much more. I think it falls between the lines of stats on paper.

I'm not casting you aside, I'm just using real data from many seasons of games I have played out. I stated earlier that I get the same feelings you do, the difference is IMHO the data proves my feelings are just that, feelings. I'm not the unluckiest manager on the planet, though I do have unlucky days. More important, I see the cpu going through the same ups and downs.

I fail to understand how actual data is an arbitrary standard of evaluation?

If there were a mistake in the code then it would apply to all teams in a played out game, human and cpu. To think otherwise would mean they coded the game to come up with these balks, wp, IF hits, errors etc. to only happen against a human user. Not only that they coded them to come up against only humans in critical situations, or to pile up until it is a critical situation. I can't see anyway the code could have a mistake, in this case, that only affected the
human user.

I won a played out game recently where the cpu P fell apart in the same manor we talk about human P's falling apart in these threads. IF hit, followed by an error, then a wp and I've got second and third with nobody out. Drop in a hit "and the race is on", 7 run inning. It is IMHO a scenario the human forgets happened quickly and it just becomes another win. But this is what I'm talking about in the code applying to both human and cpu. IE if there is a problem in the code these things would happen to both teams with the same likely hood, and in my experience (after taking the filter off of my memory) they do.

IMHO if there is any issue at all it would be the way an inning can "snowball"
into a big inning where pitchers fall apart and momentum seems (another word like "feels". I use those words too ) to take over. In my game these innings happen both for and against my team, though when it happesn against me I remember it much longer. This is an area where I have no idea how it compares to real life in regard to the number of "big innings". And with dice rolls under the hood I'm not sure how they code them out if they are coming up by chance? Put a code in to limit the chance? IDK, that's way above my pay grade.

Why do you think it's been ignored? They look at and tweak the engine every year and you don't think they take these posts into account? Matt has stated many times the sim engine is the same for played out or simulated games, for both human or AI teams. It is more likely they have looked and found nothing. You yourself said "The solution to my problem probably isn't a change in the game itself, because I honestly don't know how you find what causes this, but I do believe it is real." As I said I could see the possibility of the "snowball" inning being something that isn't quite right, but if that were the case I would not agree that it only happens to the human user.


With regard to feelings I'd almost be embarrassed to have you sitting next to me when I'm playing out a game. I'm up 3-2 in the 9th and my closer of course hits the first batter. Next ball, wherever it's hit I'm saying out loud "this is going to be an error", only the vast majority of the time it's not. BUT if it is I knew it was going to happen and the game is over, highlighted by me saying out loud "that's it game over". Only to be followed by a K, a DP, and a win that the "how I won" will soon be forgotten. If I do lose that game I will remember it for a long time.

IRL I've seen my Cubs now walk the bases loaded 4 times without getting an out (or maybe one out?) late in close games and go on to lose. One of the better teams in the league, in less than 30 games? How? I've seen the ball drop in "no man's land" at least twice taking a win to a loss. I'd like to watch them and not think the only reason these things happened was because I was watching the game. I have Marquee and see most of their games. The few games I haven't been able to watch? They've won them all. On the other side I've seen every loss. If this were OOTP and played out vs. simulated I'd have to think it was in the code. But it's real life and it does happen.

I'm sure I've done nothing to convice you, and that's ok. We can agree to disagree. I do hope you find a way to tolerate the game.