A regular season that was one game from equalling the regular season record with an expected record one better than that must be considered a success. Both batting and pitching statistics ranked at, or near, the top of most statistics while the running and defense were equally impressive.
The Royals were strong at home and on the road, in extra inning and one run games, and against LHP and RHP (although slightly better against RHP).
Catcher
Mike Murphy added value to the Royals in 2045 but his defense was weak enough that a bat 18% better than league average only translated to 1.4 WAR. For comparison Zach Herr, now with the Red Sox, created the same WAR from a 74 OPS+. In addition, Murphy’s rating have started to decline and a $6m Team Option may not be the best path for the Royals.
Mike Woods struggled with the bat but retains elite defense and has a track record of producing at an above league average level. Nelson Canjura struggled to an 84 OPS+ in AAA but may have an inside track on a role if the Royals decide to move on from Murphy.
Infield
Luis Aceves was excellent in his everyday 1B role, adding 4.4 WAR from a 148 wRC+ while becoming only the 5th Royal to reach 40 HRs on the season, while setting a top ten placing for OPS (10th) and slugging % (3rd). He is currently looking for 8-year, $176m extension but, with another year on the league minimum the Royals are happy going year to year. Gilberto Matos is wrecked, is due $18m in 2046, moved into a DH role while missing half the season, and put up a 105 wRC+ while having his 4th consecutive postseason with a negative WAR rating. There is a limited market for Matos and it is likely the Royals will move on from the 2033 Scouting Discovery out of Colombia.
For the first time in his MLB career there are questions over 2B Edgar Mir. Mir hit under the Mendoza line with a 74 wRC+ and struggled to justify a position in the starting line up. Royals Scouting Director Christensen still sees Mir as an above average MLB player and, as with Bobby Witt Jr., the Royals will accommodate his decline in the best way possible. Next year is a $12m Team Option which the Royals will happily pick up.
3B Estanislau Covete (145 wRC+) struggled with injury and his lack of defensive ability as he only played in 69 games in 2045. If the Royals move on from Matos, though, there is likely to be a regular DH spot available and the Royals have Covete pencilled in despite entering his final year of arbitration with a likely $12m price tag. Arturo Oramas had his first year as an everyday starter and put up a 124 wRC+ with elite defense to contribute 4.6 WAR to the Royals. While not in the running for an extension, Oramas is the de facto starting 3B for 2046. Luis Aguilar earned his chance with stellar seasons in AAA but didn’t manage to hit at the MLB. As a left handed hitter, he retains value and the Royals would like to give him a chance to open the 2046 season on the roster but he may be a vicitim of roster crunch. Juan Colunga was protected a switch hitting better than average defender but didn’t get a chance after struggling in AAA and the Royals are likely to need his 42-man slot. More likely to keep a spot on the 42-man roster is Andres Morales. While not excelling at AA in 2045, Morales is only 22 and the Royals will hope to see him take a step forward over the winter.
Jadon Tezeno (121 wRC+) was solidly above average in his third season in the majors, adding a 1.062 EFF rating at SS to a bat that is 23 HRs for 3rd place on the roster. Still in the early years of a long term contract it is unlikely the Royals move on from Tezeno this off season. Edgar Noriega would at least make the Royals ask the question, however, as despite a tepid 96 wRC+ he put up 3.0 WAR behind an all-MLB glove. This was Noriega’s first year in the Majors so he will return on a minimum league contract in 2046.
Neither Jonathan Mumby nor Juan Montelongo made a ML appearance and both struggled but Mumby in AAA and Montelongo in A ball meaning Mumby is most at risk of 42-man roster squeeze.
Outfield
Five players played substantive games for the Royals in 2045 and all have a case to be back in 2046, albeit some with bigger fights on their hands than others.
In the no fight class are RF Bobby Nickelberry and CF Jorge Corujo. Nickelberry had an up and down season with three months of above league average hitting, and three months below. Despite those three difficult months he still hit 34 HRs and, with Aceves, will be heart of the Royals batting line up. Corujo will be hitting much earlier after leading the AL in SB with 73, good enough for the 3rd best Royals season ever. For a plus-plus contact hitter, a .268 batting average was not good enough but the Royals are confident in his ability to improve in his second full season.
The more challenging positions come for the Chris’ – Albright, Kern, and Morrow. Morrow led the trio with 119 wRC+, hit 21 HRs while stealing 100% of his 17 attempts, and is a left-handed hitter in a team that struggles for that skill. Albright is a speedy, base stealer, with a great personality and potential plus power. Kern has the same power potential as Albright with potential for slightly higher contact ability but has a lack of speed and baserunning prowess. Kern is the only one of the three with a 65 range to allow him to play CF on Corujo’s rest days. The likely order of retention is Morrow/Kern/Albright unless the Royals decide that 2046 is a year to carry 14 batters.
Luis Maldonado made his debut at the end of the season and is a competent player that is unlikely to get past the Chris’ and can only play the corners while Sergio Ruiz has a bat that hasn’t proved it can play at the majors but he brings elite defense and plus speed as well as a durable injury proneness. Both players have two more options years and should expect to start the season in AAA.
Offseason / Early 2046 Overview
C Mike Woods
1B Luis Aceves
2B Edgar Mir
3B Arturo Oramas
SS Jadon Tezeno
LF Chris Morrow
CF Jorge Corujo
RF Bobby Nickelberry
DH Estanislau Covete / Chris Albright
C Nelson Canjura
IF Luis Aguilar
IF Edgar Noriega
OF Chris Kern
Starters
Greg Moehring had another very strong year for the Royals with an AL-leading 19-2 record from 33 starts. His 1.08 WHIP and 63 FIP- contributed to his 6.4 WAR and him looking for a $40m/year 6-year contract to avoid hitting free agent. Moehring is fragile and will turn 30 next year, both of which are red flags. His 15 WAR in 2.5 years are the counterpoint and his contract will likely be the final decision for the Royals who will at least earn a supplemental 1st round pick should they not sign him.
Jeremy Ogans had an 18-win season with his 1.01 WHIP and 77 FIP- helping him to 4.6 WAR. However, he required radial nerve surgery in his elbow after getting injured in the playoffs and won’t return until June/July in 2046. An $8m arbitration figure is difficult to stomach for a player destined to spend half of the season on the Injured list but may be exactly what the Royals needs come July next year. The Royals will attempt a hard bargain to bring Ogans back and avoid losing him for nothing.
Ben Lane stayed healthy all season and pitched well without hitting the heights of his battery mate Moehring as his HR/9 rate crept above 1.0. At $12m next season, the Royals will be happy to have him putting up over 4 WAR with an 84 FIP- although they will still be hoping a successful S&C stint over the winter could turn him into more of a workhorse and back over 200 IP.
Mike Herzner was better than league average but not by a lot when he returned from injury, a 93 FIP- to go with a 1.10 WHIP and 14-8 record. A .385 QS% is probably not enough from an average SP and certainly not worth the 3-year, $24m Herzner is looking for. A QO will be issued but no long term contract is in the offing for Herzner.
Ethan Chafin was the success story of the year, moving back into the Starting Rotation and utting up 3.6 WAR in 20 starts. The 31-year old is a FA who the Royals will have to decide to either make an offer to or issue a QO – if he was not wrecked it would be an easy decision but the Royals may decide that limiting pitch counts and pulling him early with signs of tiredness will allow them to manage his workload and make him an efficient 4/5 starter.
Chris Kuehn, the trade deadline acquisition, provided solid pitching in 11 starts, going 5-2 with a 3.10 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. Kuehn is due $16m in arbitration and, if he can repeat this 5 WAR season, will be more than worth the price.
Bullpen
Curt Bogans made room for Chafin’s return to the starting rotation after a poor start to the season. He was much better in the bullpen and he will likely return despite being a Free Agent as the Royals look to let their leading pitcher of all time retire as a Royal – this was made easier by a 2.39 RP ERA in 15 games.
Luis Danys Rhodes has a Team Option for $10m, a bargain for the stopper who put up 4.4 WAR and is likely battling with his colleague Dan Nichols for the AL Reliever of the Year Award.
Nichols is a Free Agent and he may be looking for too much money for his next contract as the 40-year old must surely be caught by father time at some point. Two years at $17m will not work but a 2-year contract with lower amounts and a TO may tempt the Royals to run their stoppers back one more time.
Losing Juan Anaya (51 FIP-) to an off field injury during the post season was a tough blow for the Royals after the 25-year old put up a great season managing the MR innings to the tune of 53 games and 75 IP. He will be due over $4m in arbitration but the Royals will bring him back.
Joe Manley had a 91% success rate as he racked up 22 saves for the season and is one of the great closers in the game. However, with an $8m arbitration figure the Royals may be tempted to see what the trade market for a player who only pitched 30 innings. Nate Avis and Julio Pesina are the final two pitchers due arbitration with Pesina not making an appearance in the Major Leagues in 2045 and therefore unlikely to receive an offer while Avis’ 1.94 ERA was a great comeback season but his arbitration number of $5.6m for the fragile reliever makes his return a coin flip.
Offseason / Early 2046 Overview
SP Chris Kuehn
SP Ben Lane
SP Jeremy Ogens
SP TBC
SP Ethan Chafin
RP Joe Manley
RP Luis Danys Rhodes
RP Dan Nichols
RP Juan Anaya
RP Curt Bogans
RP Bob Capozziello
RP Cheng Baker
RP TBC
RP TBC