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Garlon · 12-31-2024, 12:55 AM

Regarding accuracy, I posted the link to the binomial calculator. What was asked is what is the deviation you get in OOTP. Since OOTP results are probabilistic you can figure that out for yourself with the calculator. You did not specify 1 Standard deviation, 2 standard deviations, or anything. So, your question actually requires infinite trials and as Ran King replied you have asked an impossible question. If you want to know with 1 SD, then use the binomial calculator until you get +/-34%.

According to the binomial probability calculator a .264 hitter over 512 AB will bat exactly .264 about 4% of the time going 135 for 512. The batter has an 83% chance of at least batting 125 for 512, which is a .244 batting average, and has an 85% chance of batting less than .283 going 145 for 512. Basically +/-10 hits get you 1 standard deviation.

Teams get about 5400 AB in a season, in which case 1 SD is about +/-35 hits over that sample.

actionjackson, you have it confused regarding BABIP. Batters do indeed have a BABIP ability. It is pitchers who really do not have control over BABIP.

12-31-2024, 12:55 AM	#42
Garlon Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 4,256	Regarding accuracy, I posted the link to the binomial calculator. What was asked is what is the deviation you get in OOTP. Since OOTP results are probabilistic you can figure that out for yourself with the calculator. You did not specify 1 Standard deviation, 2 standard deviations, or anything. So, your question actually requires infinite trials and as Ran King replied you have asked an impossible question. If you want to know with 1 SD, then use the binomial calculator until you get +/-34%. According to the binomial probability calculator a .264 hitter over 512 AB will bat exactly .264 about 4% of the time going 135 for 512. The batter has an 83% chance of at least batting 125 for 512, which is a .244 batting average, and has an 85% chance of batting less than .283 going 145 for 512. Basically +/-10 hits get you 1 standard deviation. Teams get about 5400 AB in a season, in which case 1 SD is about +/-35 hits over that sample. actionjackson, you have it confused regarding BABIP. Batters do indeed have a BABIP ability. It is pitchers who really do not have control over BABIP. Last edited by Garlon; 12-31-2024 at 01:08 AM.