[findinghomer]

Originally Posted by ayaghmour2

Yes, if your point is most pitchers are 4% rested after starting the previous day, you are correct. I did what you did, simmed a day, and checked all pitchers, and only 1 pitcher wasn't at 4%. Most guys threw 70+ pitches, so this makes sense to some degree. Variation may be better, but that is just at the 1 day point

Things started to change as days advanced. I got 8, 14, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21 at the 2 day point. This seems to be a modern day issue, not a fatigue as a whole issue. It seems like you are almost guaranteed in a modern setup to have a guy be 4% rested after 1 day.

So next is testing a different year. I picked 1997, which has "default" for hook SP, "low" for stamina, and "1.048" for SP stamina. Here after 1 day, most were 4%, and after 2 it had a similar range.

Next up, 1977, which has default, normal, and 1.000. Here I got more of a mix, with 2s, 3s, 4s, even a 14 since a guy went only 63 pitches, and a 16 at 59. It does seem like if a guy "empties the tank" he gets capped at 4% fatigue. As I progressed, the single digits were between 14 and 21, with the two higher rested guys at 35 and 36. Sticking with those two, it went to 63 and 64 at 3, and both got to 100% at 4. The highest a single digit guy got to by day 4 was 71, and another got to 70. Both threw 109 pitches at the same stadium. There was another 70 elsewhere with just 96 pitches, and a third with 142

Interestingly, one team decided to pitch one of the 60% on short rest. He threw 99 pitches first, then 100 on 4 days rest. He was a 2%. Another short rest went 116 then 92, he was a 3%. There was a 137 to 74, he was 3%. 110 to 110, 2%. 96 to 101, 2%. 139 to 102, 1%. 115 to 90, 2%. 119 to 131, 2%. 135 to 68, 2%. But all guys with 4 full days of rest, were up to 100% on the 5th day.

So there is a sweet spot, and some differential, but I understand why you would want to see something different. There is room for improvement, but there is some variability. It's easier to see in past years, and I'm sure there's a ton in the 1940s and before.

But You're not understanding my problem. In your example they all threw 70 pitches.. okay yeah that's fine a generic 4% fatigue for everyone, small potatoes. I wouldn't have a problem with that... Problem is, say you put a pitch count for 30 because you are short a starting pitcher and you are going to work your bullpen a little harder. That pitcher will throw 30 pitches and still be at 4% the next day Benefit has an 80 stamina. he still can't pitch at 100 for 5 more days. Makes no sense at all. He should be No less than 40% fatigue