Quote:
Originally Posted by holes573
Twins_34 and darkcloud4579:
You seem to have missed the point of this analysis. Of course bad pitchers will do well at times - there are lots of factors (including luck) about why they should. I haven't argued that "it's weird" that it happens or that there "should be a guarantee" that a 38 pitcher should get shelled.
Instead, I've argued that luck indeed happens, but that above and beyond that there is a "good day" algorithm at work. And that too is fine (and probably matches real baseball).
Rather, I've argued that the application of a good day to poorer pitchers appears too heavily weighted. The frequency of a less than 2.00 ERA outing, for medium and good pitchers should be more than for bad pitchers.
|
I am not trying to say you are wrong. Please do not take it that way. I was just trying to point out that, even though a pitcher might be ranked as a 38 overall, it does not make them a "bad" pitcher. I mean, they are not a good pitcher by any means either but, Rain made a great point. How many of them bad pitchers were pulled having a good start to their game, but pulled in the 5th with the lead and good relievers came in to close out the game?
I also don't think there is "good day" or "bad day" algorithm. I think it is all just RNG and the luck of a dice roll. I just had 2 - 70 overall pitchers get shelled by 40 and 50 overall batters two games in a row. It... just seems to happen but I do not think there is some hidden mechanic under the engine... not like them unstoppable drives in Madden where no matter what you try and do, you just can't stop that one drive and they just march down the field and score.