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Twins_34 and darkcloud4579:
You seem to have missed the point of this analysis. Of course bad pitchers will do well at times - there are lots of factors (including luck) about why they should. I haven't argued that "it's weird" that it happens or that there "should be a guarantee" that a 38 pitcher should get shelled.
Instead, I've argued that luck indeed happens, but that above and beyond that there is a "good day" algorithm at work. And that too is fine (and probably matches real baseball).
Rather, I've argued that the application of a good day to poorer pitchers appears too heavily weighted. The frequency of a less than 2.00 ERA outing, for medium and good pitchers should be more than for bad pitchers.
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