Quote:
Originally Posted by mrkdog
This is my first year playing OOTP and I've recognized some events which, way more often than not, seem to lead to predictable outcomes. The main one I've seen is a single followed by a wild pitch. My experience is this almost always turns into a big inning.
Yes, in real life a wild pitch turns into a big inning, but I think much less than OOTP.
Has anyone else seen this? If so, what other situations have you seen where the RNG seems predictable?
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I do think there's sometimes a bit of confirmation bias with stuff like this - ie, you see it happen once or twice and then you notice every.single.time. it happens.
There's also something to be said for run probability in that kinda situation - runner on 1st with nobody out has about a 57% chance of staying a scoreless inning. But get that runner onto 2nd with nobody out and now you're looking at a 37% chance of a scoreless inning and a nearly 50% chance that you're giving up 1-2 runs (all probabilities from Greg Stoll's Expected Runs calculator) so it would make sense that the single and a wild pitch would open the floodgates.
The one thing I would look into, if you really want to dig into the backend, is if your game is seeing too many wild pitches?