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thenewchuckd · 09-09-2024, 08:51 PM

I think this article gives some ideas of how to make the game more realistic:

https://content.iospress.com/article...tics/jsa200586

Lots of interesting stuff there, although a few takeaways & really in my mind this game is not even close to realistic until it achieves this. I feel like previous versions of the game got this to a degree, I'm not sure how we got to this version and it got so bad:

-a solid majority of signed 1st round picks make it to the majors
-the average career WAR of these players is a respectable 6.93
-the drop-off after the first round (for both making it to the majors and career war) is massive. It scales for every round there-after as well
-somewhere between the 6th-10th round it becomes a complete crap shoot

I'm sure if you took the top 10 and top 5, you'd get similar scalable findings. Like, most superstars are detected and found in this range.

Really, I'm not sure if you can do that in this version, although eventually you need to get to a more probabilistic TCR. Instead of a complete crap shoot TCR, that treats all players like they're 10th rounders or later.

Edit: reading the article further, it has a chart of career war for groupings in the 1st round. Exactly as I said, career WAR for picks 1-5 is much higher (13.29), diminishing until pick 16, where it levels off (although still generally decreasing as the picks advance)..

09-09-2024, 08:51 PM	#14
thenewchuckd Minors (Single A) Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 68	I think this article gives some ideas of how to make the game more realistic: https://content.iospress.com/article...tics/jsa200586 Lots of interesting stuff there, although a few takeaways & really in my mind this game is not even close to realistic until it achieves this. I feel like previous versions of the game got this to a degree, I'm not sure how we got to this version and it got so bad: -a solid majority of signed 1st round picks make it to the majors -the average career WAR of these players is a respectable 6.93 -the drop-off after the first round (for both making it to the majors and career war) is massive. It scales for every round there-after as well -somewhere between the 6th-10th round it becomes a complete crap shoot I'm sure if you took the top 10 and top 5, you'd get similar scalable findings. Like, most superstars are detected and found in this range. Really, I'm not sure if you can do that in this version, although eventually you need to get to a more probabilistic TCR. Instead of a complete crap shoot TCR, that treats all players like they're 10th rounders or later. Edit: reading the article further, it has a chart of career war for groupings in the 1st round. Exactly as I said, career WAR for picks 1-5 is much higher (13.29), diminishing until pick 16, where it levels off (although still generally decreasing as the picks advance).. Last edited by thenewchuckd; 09-09-2024 at 08:58 PM.