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From 2009 to 2018, a span of ten drafts, 47 percent of the position players selected by all MLB teams in the June draft ended up with a negative Wins Above Replacement (at best) in the majors. One in five position players picked in the first round (2009-18) have played fewer than 50 games in the big leagues.
Selecting pitchers has been almost as much of a crapshoot: in the ten June MLB Drafts from 2009 to 2018, 39 percent of pitching prospects either did not pitch in the big leagues or have produced negative WAR in the majors. A stunning 26 percent of pitchers picked in the first round have never pitched in the majors.
I wouldn't trade 10 unknowns for a known.
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