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Originally Posted by thenewchuckd
Ah - since you made me doubt, I did a little sim for you. I tested with "cold", since this seems to me to be something that just should never impact injury rating.
I went into commish mode and gave 3 of my players the cold, 1 who is durable with 1 overall proneness (I think this is the lowest). He is the only guy of the three who recovered exactly the same (after the cold, he was still 1). So my best guess - there might be a % factor involved.
The other two guys went in both with exactly 90 overall. They both came out with 97 overall (another nod to perhaps a flat %).
90 up to 97 is not a small % !!! This is actually worse than I thought. And now it makes total sense how three minor injuries in one season just snowball. Even for something like a cold.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thenewchuckd
Nope. Overall injury is overall injury. It is true that cold bumped only two things: overall and "other". So two things are actually true: they're more likely to get injured & they're more likely to get the flu. However, they're also more likely to get an even more serious injury.
One injury might not make a "huge" deal (although an 8% increase in overall is nothing to sniff at). The issue is, you combine a cold, bruised knee and fractured hand in one season, it's a huge slippery slope.
Sure, it appears someone who is durable tends to stay durable. It's the guys in-between. It means, unless you're lucky, if you draft a "normal" 18 year old, he's highly likely to be fragile when he's 21. So at minimum, high schoolers should be always be born closer to "durable" and certainly not fragile; in order to have the same injury rating distribution as guys "born" as college players. Although for realism - a complete overhaul would be needed.
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Glad to hear you are looking deeper. Like I said I'm certainly not an expert nor claiming there is not a problem. With regard to how much a rating increases (7/200 is a 3.5% increase, for a cold) we're still back at how do these injury designations from Wrecked to Iron Man affect games played, time missed, and stat output. Without that data one is down to guessing not only how to fix it, but also not knowing if a fix is needed. If they guess at a fix it affects every user.
I posted data earlier where I have filtered my league and noted how many of each rating I have. I have glanced down those players looking at how much time they are playing/have played and based on my cursory examination I'm not seeing an issue.
I'll give you a few more numbers from my league.
Lets start here..
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It means, unless you're lucky, if you draft a "normal" 18 year old, he's highly likely to be fragile when he's 21.
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My league.. this is MLB, Milb, Minors, FA, and Complex players
470 players are 21 year old
29 are fragile
.062
Not highly likely at all. At least in my game.
MLB, MiLB, FA, Complex
5922 players
587 fragile... .099
159 wrecked.. .027. youngest wrecked player is 26. there are 2 of those. So as I start my spring training something has changed in my game as all wrecked players on my last sort were 28 or older. Kind of messes up the "game is hiding things" theory.
All players 22 and older
3511 players
159 wrecked .027
Yes the same 159 as no players under 22 are wrecked
481 fragile .136
Only players that are 21 years old
470 players
29 fragile .062
Again, zero are wrecked
I'm seeing no likelihood of players being fragile at 21 unless 6.2% is considered likely.
Even if you or others think 6.2% is too much doesn't one still need to establish the effect of that on playing time and stat output? If injuries are reduced these players are playing more. What is the effect? Youngsters stuck in the minors or on the bench? What else?
21 and younger as a group
2411 players. Zero are wrecked.
106 fragile
of the 106 fragile..
20 are 16 yrs old
14 are 17 yrs old
Suggesting players are created fragile but not wrecked. IE all players did not start out as at least normal. Let's look at durable for these 16 and 17 yr olds
17 yrs durable 60
16 yrs durable 35
0 are Iron men
If there is a problem and a fix is needed it has to be based on more than there are too many players with wrecked or fragile labels.