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Pelican · 08-24-2024, 10:57 AM

Well, one easy answer is that, if talent change seems too much, you can reduce the number by moving the slider. I've had the reverse problem - not enough change - and have moved the slider up to 185 without total chaos.

Agreed that the degree of change should depend upon the prospect's age and experience. That 16-year-old international prospect who has 75/75/50 potential has less than a 10% chance of playing a single MLB game. But the 23-year-old guy out of an SEC program who was MVP of a Summer wooden bat league should be more like 75% - still not a sure thing.

For pitching prospects, it's different (in IRL and in OOTP). Injuries play a huge part. Yes, a 100-mile per hour fastball is real, if the guy can control it. But that's tremendous torque on a young arm. A high school guy throwing that hard has a 1% chance of being the next Nolan Ryan.

08-24-2024, 10:57 AM	#3
Pelican Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2021 Location: Wilmington, Delaware Posts: 2,999	Well, one easy answer is that, if talent change seems too much, you can reduce the number by moving the slider. I've had the reverse problem - not enough change - and have moved the slider up to 185 without total chaos. Agreed that the degree of change should depend upon the prospect's age and experience. That 16-year-old international prospect who has 75/75/50 potential has less than a 10% chance of playing a single MLB game. But the 23-year-old guy out of an SEC program who was MVP of a Summer wooden bat league should be more like 75% - still not a sure thing. For pitching prospects, it's different (in IRL and in OOTP). Injuries play a huge part. Yes, a 100-mile per hour fastball is real, if the guy can control it. But that's tremendous torque on a young arm. A high school guy throwing that hard has a 1% chance of being the next Nolan Ryan. __________________ Pelican OOTP 2020-? ”Hard to believe, Harry.”