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The chance of success for top prospects irl is probably less than you think, but agreed that it's maybe too drastic with the recent update - I've been running some sims and it seems common for 1OA picks to never even make the majors, realistically almost all of them should make it but many will still flame out. I kind of want the probability of random 11th rounders getting TCR boosted to be increased while having the chance of top prospects never even reaching the majors be reduced. I feel like there is now a better chance of the former but it came at the expense of the latter.
Also, I wish the development curve had more variance - like some players debuting at 19, others at 25 just like in real life. In OOTP, most players seem to debut and peak all at around the same time. Also, having TCR affect players that are in their late 20s and early 30s more would be great - I'm pretty sure it only affects young players' development.
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