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i definitely want my best power guy with decent bat hitting 4th rather than 3rd. Not necesarily the best 'hitter' as far as BA. I don't value BA too highly but your best players in years that matter should hit above league BA. 30pts higher type difference can make me put someone with less power over someone with more and low BA.
I don't know if "average" is the best way to describe what you shoudl put in the 3rd spot. They are still going to get more PA by a significant margen over say 6+. The number of rbi-opportunities for 3 and 5 average out in a similar way despite the #3 spot getting more PA over the season.
When i have loaded teams that seems to play out too in the simulator. #3's extra PA make up for whatever the math is on the chance of 2 outs, nobody on in the first inning X% of the time... the effect is also not devestating it seems.
Bill james isn't even a math major, is he? LOL. I like how his name helped push better metrics to be used, but WAR is trash and they way he tries to frame things seems poor. WAR is only useful when comparing really crappy players for a bench spot or a team like the A's or Marlins that refuse to spend money on players while the owner milks the national TV contract money and holds local taxpayers ransom with threats to move.
Instead of being centered around replacement level, it'd be far more useful if it was centered around a typical WS-caliber team's talent.
Who cares about mediocre years? Those are lost before they start. You don't want to maximize wins in those seasons, you want to maximize development and anthing else that feeds the bank for the future.
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