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No, it should be based on the Arm rating, your speed and the relative position in the field shown on the graphic (it seems somewhat accurate to me for the purposes of judging positioning). I think you need to look at those moments as a true risk proposition which is the only reason it's prompting you; "this is a risk, do you want to take it?" After that I'm assuming it's poor judgement or bad luck, but not a 50/50 gamble.
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