[fauteuil7]

I just did a replay of the 1990 Yankees season for probably the 100th time over the past 30 years and however many versions of OOTP have come out since 5, and it's the first time I've won the division with Historical Transactions (but not Historical Lineups) turned on so I couldn't cheat by hustling the AI in trades; I wanted to deal with the same injuries and dumb trades Bucky and Stump dealt with (Dave Winfield for Mike Witt???), Deion disappearing for football, all of that. We finished 85-77, while the real life team went 67-95. I usually play to see if I can get to .500 and call that a victory, but this run was honestly miraculous.

We had the worst Run Differential in the AL and a +13 Pythagorean Differential; I'd like to know what the odds of that happening are since it seems so astronomically improbable. Our starting pitching and back of the bullpen were terrible so we lost 6 games by 9 or more runs and only won 1 game by that margin, and we were 28-12 in one run games and 51-30 at home with a number of walkoff wins so I know that skews the Pythagorean results but honestly, that looks like what happened to the 1905 Tigers when they had the record at +14.78: 7 losses by 9+ runs, 1 win by 9+.

What are the percentage odds of a +13 result? My hack math was to take the number of team-seasons since 1969 to 2023, 54 years times an average of 30 teams for 1620 team-seasons, then 16 teams by the 63 seasons between the 1905 Tigers and the Divisional Era, getting 1008, a total of 2628 team-seasons. Based on actual occurence, this looks like a 1 in 2628 result, a 0.00038% chance.

Does anyone better at math than I am know a more direct way using the equation to get the odds of each potential result, like a chart that shows +1, +2, etc. with the odds of each result happening? I couldn't find anything like that online anywhere.