Quote:
Originally Posted by Matt Arnold
For streaks, they're basically just giving players a slight boost to their performance, in the same ways that coaching, morale, fatigue, rust, etc... interact. The problem with applying floors and caps to player performance is that to actually keep things in line, you would need some brutally high adjustments. If 2001 Bonds is at 25 HR at the All-Star break, if we had a floor in you'd know that he'd have to hit at a crazy rate to reach the floor. Or if that's not enough, if we said "okay, he needs 50 HR in 500 AB and he's at 40 in 490" then all of a sudden your "floor" algorithm has him hitting 10 straight HR with no way to change that. That seems incredibly wrong.
As for LTMs, that's part of the game. With the heavy ratings changes this year, the goal is to make sure that LTM don't really need to come in to play other than just some fine tuning around the edges. In new fictional games, the actual league outputs are balanced enough that you don't need to use auto-calc to have stable results.
I mean, if you create a historical game with 0 in all the adjust/weaken, and you play out every game manually ensuring that everyone's usage is 100% historical, your results will likely be very close to accurate. But most players don't want to do that, and so once the AI starts in, LTM is just one way to balance that. We do always strive to improve the historical usage.
|
I'm glad you are working toward a lot less reliance on LTMs. That shows a recognition that ratings aren't accurate and they need to be.
Concerning floors and ceilings it appears I've not been clear on what I mean by that. What I mean is I don't want players hitting substantially better than their best talent year with all the breaks going their way or substantially worse than their worst year when they just didn't have it and all the breaks went against them.
The example I usually use is when Tony Armas hit 325 then 179 in consecutive years on 3 year recalc not weighted. I'm not worried about things like your example with Bonds hitting 40 HRs instead of 50. That's a reasonable variation.