Thread: Scouting Bugs
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Old 04-08-2024, 06:51 PM   #1
turtle4499
Minors (Single A)
 
Join Date: Apr 2022
Posts: 52
Scouting Bugs

Scouting appears to give extremely inaccurate ratings for players with two systematic errors that lead to overrating certain players well beyond previous games.

Systematic error 1:

The error rate for a scouts measurement does not appear to properly account for the new rating range changes. Previously the ratings where linear with the 1-100 scale that is no longer true. Scouting measurement does not seem to account for this, which leads to high skewed scouting reports for major league level players a ± 20 in 0-550 has dramatically different range in 1-100 depending on the players actual rating. For a player with a rating in the 90 range it is 82-104. This leads to systematic overrating of players. It is extremely problematic on players with stat ratings above 500 as they get extremely exaggerated.


Code:
Rating	1-100	20-80
30	4	20
50	6	25
100	12	25
150	18	30
200	24	35
250	29	35
300	35	40
350	43	45
400	50	50
410	54	50
420	58	55
430	62	55
440	66	60
450	70	60
460	74	65
470	78	65
480	82	70
490	86	75
500	90	75
510	97	80
520	104	80
530	111	85
540	118	90
550	125	95
Systematic error 2:

I am not sure what triggered the following change but comparing 100 scouted clones with fixed equal hitting potentials (83 1-100) there appears to be a dramatic shift in the correlation between scouting ratings. In 23 there was an r^2 of .64 in 25 the r^2 is .98. This leads to a dramatic decrease in the accuracy of scouting reports due to increasing variance at the overall level. Low correlation reduces variance at the player overall level. I assume this is a bug related to the scale changes.





Further it does not appear that the max values for EYE and HR power are scouting the same as the max values for K% BB% and BABIP.

Code:
HT P	K P	GAP P	POW P	EYE P
88	88	88	100	101
88	89	88	99	99
87	87	87	97	98
87	87	87	96	97
86	87	85	94	97
87	85	86	91	94
86	86	86	92	94
86	87	87	93	93
86	85	85	89	92
86	85	85	89	92
86	86	87	94	92
86	85	86	92	92
85	86	85	91	91
85	86	85	91	91
85	85	85	92	90
84	85	85	90	90
85	85	85	89	90
85	85	85	90	89
85	84	84	89	89
83	84	85	89	89
84	85	84	88	89
84	85	84	88	89
87	84	84	89	89
85	84	85	89	89
85	85	85	89	89
84	86	86	88	89
85	84	83	89	88
85	84	83	87	88
83	83	84	87	87
84	84	85	87	87
83	83	84	87	87
85	84	84	89	87
83	84	85	87	86
82	83	83	85	86
83	83	83	85	86
83	84	83	86	86
82	81	81	82	85
83	83	82	85	85
83	83	83	85	85
83	83	82	85	85
82	82	81	83	85
83	83	84	86	85
82	82	83	84	84
81	82	82	83	84
82	82	82	84	83
83	83	82	83	83
81	82	81	82	83
83	84	83	84	83
82	82	81	84	83
82	82	82	83	83
82	81	82	83	83
81	82	80	82	83
82	82	84	85	83
81	82	82	83	83
81	81	83	81	82
81	81	81	81	82
81	81	81	81	82
81	81	82	83	82
81	81	82	82	82
83	82	83	83	82
82	81	81	82	82
81	83	82	83	82
79	81	81	81	81
81	80	80	81	81
80	79	80	79	81
79	79	79	81	80
79	77	77	78	79
79	80	80	79	79
79	80	79	79	79
80	80	79	79	78
79	79	77	78	78
77	77	77	76	77
77	78	77	77	77
77	77	77	77	77
77	77	75	76	77
76	77	77	77	76
77	76	76	75	76
77	75	75	76	76
76	77	75	75	75
77	76	76	76	75
77	75	75	75	74
75	75	74	74	74
74	73	72	73	74
75	74	74	75	74
75	75	74	74	73
74	76	75	74	73
74	72	71	72	72
73	73	72	72	71
72	72	71	71	71
71	73	71	71	71
73	73	71	71	71
72	72	72	71	70
73	73	71	70	70
71	71	69	71	69
71	71	69	70	69
71	70	68	69	68
69	71	69	67	68
68	67	67	67	67
71	70	69	69	67
71	70	67	67	67
The pow and eye ones are correct and give the correct avg when the underlying ratings are regressed in the others are too low.

Just as a side comment, I do not think it is good for the game or justifiable that the range between 40-50 rating is the same as between 50-75. (20-80)

I know these ratings are not directly populating overall but since they seem highly related I assume that it is the same scale range. A 40 FV player should be around 0 WAR a 75 FV player should be around 6 war. The scale range in here is the opposite of what you would expect by normal measures. There should be half the range between 40-50 as between 50-75 not the same. I know this leads to a more accurate number of players but it is way to far from expectations to be reasonable. A 40 rating in any stat is more or less in unplayable territory now.
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