This is definitely TLDR, but I went into some more development rather than just draft distribution (unless you are a masochist, don’t sweat the draft. Pick traits you like and throw a bunch of darts).
The year is 2080, still a familiar distribution of players.
18 at 80/80 (10 in their 20s)
12 at 75
38 at 70
36 at 65
77 at 60
Fewer 75s, more 70s this time but that’s the only thing that looks slightly different.
I’ll go into detail with one example of typical (good) player development using a 4th round pick who is now a 70-70 at 27 years old born 8/22/2053. His path is typical for a player created as a HS player, it is a little atypical for a 4th rounder to pan out like this.
First 100% scouting report 4/12/2069 which I guess was his freshman year in HS (15yo)
STUFF 30/65, MOV 45/60, CON 30/60, OVR 20/60 91-93
Four years later before the draft 4/12/2072
STUFF 30/60, MOV 45/50, CON 30/60, OVR 20/60 91-93. Not sure how familiar everyone is with high school freshmen vs seniors, but this would be very rare. Potential drop is fine, but there are not many freshmen who don’t change in their actual performance between ages 15-18.
4/13/2073 (age 19) as he starts his FCL Career
STUFF 30/60, MOV 45/50, CONT 30/60 OVR 20/60 92-94. Gained a little velocity.
7/4/2023 no change
6/2/2074 (age 20y 9.5mo), 2nd FCL year
STUFF 35/60, MOV 45/55, CON 30/60, OVR 20/60 92-94. Things are starting to happen
5/29/2075 (age 21y 9.5mo), 3rd FCL year
STUFF 45/60, MOV 50/55, CON 40/60, OVR 30/60 93-95. Definitely have to pay attention to him.
3/4/2076 (age 22y 6.5mo). Threw 10 innings at A+ ball at the end of last year and is now in AAA.
STUFF 45/65, MOV 55/55, CON 45/60, OVR 40/60 94-96.
Makes one start at AAA and gets promoted to MLB. He pitches in 59 games, mostly in relief, makes 3 starts. His first MLB scouting report is identical except his OVR now says 45/60 (probably as a relief pitcher?)
Fast forward to 12/1/2080 (27y 3.5mo)
STUFF 55/65, MOV 60/60, CON 60/60 OVR 70/70. He has been a full time starter since the start of 2077 making 119 starts over 4 seasons amassing 17.7 WAR. He has apparently visited the development lab 4 times in his career, all visits were unsuccessful.
This guy had a steady rise eventually, starting at around age 20. In the scouting history page the top graph on my screen shows you a players progression and those slopes vary greatly, but as a general rule there is a flatline to start when a player is created at age 16. When they are created as a college player the line typically looks much more believable, as if their skill level is changing during what most would consider a typical period of change. High level IAFAs typically have an extreme period of rapid growth after many flatline seasons sitting in your system.
In visual terms from the game, here is the guy I described in detail, then an 80/80 created as a college player (who is now 35 and has led the league in WAR for 10 consecutive seasons, 98 career WAR), and a 24 yo IAFA who should become a star (made 70 starts at A ball or lower over from 2075-2078. Jumped to AAA at the end of 2078. Made 1 start at AAA in 2079, then a part time starter / reliever. 5WAR starter in 2080). All entered MLB in their age 22 season which seems to be the sweet spot.
