Quote:
Originally Posted by thehef
This is some really good stuff!
Some questions, though:
Which scenario would this be best for? I'm assuming for where you don't have players on their historical teams, but not sure. If so, what happens where Maris or Mantle just happens to be end up on the Yankees?
How would this one play out, a) players on their historically correct teams, and b) players not on their historical teams?
The other two scenarios makes good sense to me 
Thanks! |
Assuming you are using 1 year recalc., as played lineups, etc..
Using neutralized stats with real park factors, players on their real teams, players should end up close to their real life stats (allowing for randomness of course).
Using neutralized stats, real park factors, players not on historical team, players resulting stats will reflect what their stats would have been if they had played on this team in real life instead of their historical team.
I haven't tried this but it would be easy and interesting to start a game in 1961, 1 year recalc.. Neutralized stats. real park factors. Go into Maris's player editor and look at expected results. Then change park factors to real and see if it changes. Change his team in editor and see if his expected results change. You might even be able to change neutralized stats to real stats and do the same. The various results would be interesting IMO
OK, I did try the expected out and kept getting about 41-43 HRs for Maris. Then played a season out using as played line ups, 1 yr recalc. Neutralized stats, real ball park factors. In my extremely low sample size. Maris had 61 HRs and Mantle had 62. I haven’t figured out why the expected was so low.