I took an export of 3 scenarios: the full MLB roster set, the initial draft with real people, and then a draft of fictional players with default TCR and draft settings. Context for the numbers. I recall a video mentioning the MLB average is 400 for a rating, which my distribution does align with. If I remember correctly, each level is a 50 point drop from there. I'll show just a single stat in my numbers analysis as it seems the same general pattern for others, but with some showing different distribution charts like power. I should also preface this relies on the draft export and league export functions being accurate.
The drafts containing all generated players are extraordinary in comparison to the real MLB players and the MLB draft
. The average player in the draft is expected to have average MLB ratings at all major stats. The minimum player rating in most fields is expected to be at worst league average for a A+ potential.
The base draft numbers are much more what I would expect of real draft distribution. The average players potential is to be a league average A+ player in stark contrast to the min for generated players.
MLB Distribution for Potential Eye
Average -397.6
Median - 404
Min - 240
Max - 535
2024 Default Draft Distribution for Potential Eye
Average - 268.7
Median - 268
Min - 0
Max - 463
2024 Fictional Draft Distribution for Potential Eye
Average - 376.1
Median - 379
Min - 261
Max - 504
The real draft does contain many, many more players (2946) though compared to the default setting 900 for generated player drafts which does throw off the comparisons quite a bit. The allocation of stats though for those 900 generated ones gives each player a more higher chance it seems at being well above average when combining the full package. Many of the real draft players may have a good eye potential, but they are brought down by something else like lower power.
Even on the past OOTP versions, I would typically start feeling a disconnect with reality 5+ years in as the Top 100 prospects was littered with 70+ (20-80) potential with 100% accuracy. This is so far from reality and what the game opens up as at the beginning, and then I would start really modifying the Player Creation Modifiers, TCR, and development settings to make a league feel more authenticated.
I haven't really gotten into playing with the Player Creation modifiers yet to try to address this for this years version. Even if I can, as someone else mentioned, in the past I have observed modifying the Stuff one drops the leave average velocity. It would be very nice to have those be separate modifiers so pitchers aren't all throwing upper 80s to have a better distribution on generated player's stuff. I will do some testing though with many more generated players for the draft, but with a much lower player creation modifier. This hopefully will mean less players hit the jackpot on being good at everything and thus being a 70+ level prospect.
EDIT: I can't put the images in the message body. All are Potential Eye. Left to Right:MLB, 2024 draft class, generated draft class