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Old 03-14-2024, 02:57 PM   #10
Ktulu
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Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: BC
Posts: 4,506
Quote:
Originally Posted by uruguru View Post
Yes, the "concept" of potential future ability exists. But potential future ability actually does not exist. What you are talking about is the subjective opinion of baseball scouts, and they are famously wrong more than they are right. You just don't remember the wrongs.

You are talking about evaluating players on their actuals ("how good they currently are"), which is my point.

1/3rd of all first-round picks never make the majors, not even for a cup of coffee in September. Half of all second-round picks miss the mark, too.

And those numbers are inflated because of the rise of college baseball, where players are older and more developed by the time they are drafted, which greatly reduces the error in projections.
Future ability in anything absolutely exists. The fact that we as humans cannot accurately predict that future ability is irrelevant. But that conceptual debate is pointless...

Of course what we are talking about is scouts predicting the future ability of baseball prospects and how that translates into how a video game should represent that. Saying that "potential doesn't exist" in both contexts is just flat out wrong. If you want to play without "potential" ratings you can already do that. Changing the game design to be completely random without a target potential would be bad game design, both under the hood and as what's presented to the user.
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