Quote:
Originally Posted by Ktulu
That's nonsense. Any baseball fan can look at a 21 year old player and see how good they currently are and extrapolate that into how much better they could be down the road.
Whether that opinion is right or wrong is irrelevant, the concept of actual current ability and potential future ability absolutely exists.
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Yes, the "concept" of potential future ability exists. But potential future ability actually does not exist. What you are talking about is the subjective opinion of baseball scouts, and they are famously wrong more than they are right. You just don't remember the wrongs.
You are talking about evaluating players on their actuals ("how good they currently are"), which is my point.
1/3rd of all first-round picks never make the majors, not even for a cup of coffee in September. Half of all second-round picks miss the mark, too.
And those numbers are inflated because of the rise of college baseball, where players are older and more developed by the time they are drafted, which greatly reduces the error in projections.