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I don't think it is random in the offseason- it may sometimes be random, but in my experience, sustaining high fan interest/attendance will eventually lead to fan loyalty and market size gains, while consistently low interest/attendance can lead to both measures dwindling.
My best guess is that, because fan interest goes above 100 (on a hidden counter) there is some sort of y2k type bug, where if it surpasses a certain threshold, it resets back to a 'true' 100. Kind of like a game 21 in basketball, if you score 22 your counter goes back to 10, you know?
Lets imagine that the hidden counter goes to 999, with 100 displayed and 899 hidden. If you go to 1000 fan interest, perhaps the game returns to a 'true' 100 and thinks that your team's fan interest just dropped by 899 points overnight, resulting in a four tier loyalty drop?
If the game assumes this would never happen (that the hidden threshold would be breached and reset) there's no accompanying storyline and I'm left with the current mystery. It's my best guess for something going screwy on the automated side, I am sure a manual change could do it, but I don't suspect it any foul play, so, looking to see if there's any other credible reasoning.
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