Quote:
Originally Posted by monkeyman576
All good points, but I think Seattle could be a dark horse. No one was predicting the Padres to sign all the players they did. Also, Ichiro played in Seattle and he is the most popular Japanese player of all time. Seattle also has a very large Japanese population(probably a higher percentage that LA, edit: 1.8% for Seattle vs. 0.9% for LA), and apparently Ohtani likes Seattle and spends vacation time there. The only question is that apparently Seattle management may be against large free agent contracts in general but maybe they make an exception for Ohtani(considering he is a sport transcending personality).Also, the "Come to Seattle" chants at the all star game may have endeared him to Seattle fans.
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I read somewhere that it basically comes down to three things: Money (does a team have enough and/or the willingness to spend it?), winning (he wants to play in October), and geography (he wants to be on the west coast, closer to Japan and where the Japanese communities are most-prevalent). And that all three are important factors to him. So we can - for our purposes of here of determining favorites - eliminate most of the MLB that isn't on the west coast. Surely some east coast team (Phillies? Yankees?) could swoop in with a comprehensive package that simply overwhelms him... At any rate, based upon those factors, the rankings would probably come in something like this:
1. Dodgers, overwhelming favorite: They clearly have the money to spend to both sign Ohtani
and ensure a strong overall roster; given that, their recent history, and a strong farm system, and they are a near-lock for post-season play every year. They absolutely check the geography/vibrant Japanese community box. In addition, they have a history of success with Japanese pitchers (think Nomo, Maeda, Saito - all of whom were not only successful in LA but were also fan-favorites).
2. Giants, reasonable alternative: They could muster the cash, but would they then have enough to spend on the rest of the roster in order to be a near-lock for the post-season, every year? And despite the Giants' titles in 2010, 2012 and 2014, even including those years (since 2010) they've missed the playoffs more than they've made them; i.e., they are not the post-season lock that the Dodgers are...
3. Padres, can't be dismissed: They've shown a willingness to spend, and have some serious star-power; they check the geo-box as well as any other team. But there are serious questions of spending-
wisely, and while they made the playoffs last year and notably upset the Dodgers, despite the star-power they are merely on the fringe of playoff discussion this year and might be a season away from a complete overhaul/rebuild.
4. Angels, longshot: I suppose his current team can't be dismissed. The only way that works, IMO, is if Ohtani sits back and watches the Angels make some serious moves that transform the club into a contender. Gotta figure that's unlikely, as that would require the team somehow acquiring multiple all-stars or near-all-stars.
5. Mariners, darkhorse: For the reasons mentioned by monkeyman576... I suppose the Mariners could spend the dough, but like the Giants, would they be willing & able to spend even more for a playoff-quality roster?
6. Rangers, non-west-coast darkhorse: They're willing to spend, have some good players, and look to be headed to this year's playoffs. They don't have the winning tradition of the Dodgers or even the Giants, but if you want to peg a darkhorse that isn't on the west coast, this would be the team...
Another factor that could sway towards Texas and away from the teams that would seem to be favorites: California is the brutal - not just among the states considered here - on income taxes; Texas is the best... Washington, surprisingly, ranks right there with Texas, so that's another factor that might favor Seattle... For those keeping score and wondering about the Yankees, Red Sox, and Phillies: New York is the worst, and Massachusetts isn't far behind, barely better than Calif; Pennsylvania is not great...