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Pelican · 08-17-2023, 03:18 PM

Agree with the above, which is why I prefer to draft pitchers especially and hitters too with at least some college experience. Plus, they are closer to being MLB ready than an 18-year-old. It’s asking a lot of a scout to project an 18-year-old playing in high school (potentially against guys like me, when I played in high school, not destined for professional baseball) against uneven opposition, relatively few games even counting Babe Ruth and summer leagues. At least you can look at pitcher or batter stats for a guy in the SEC and figure that was against consistently good opposition at the (low) Class A level of the minors.

If I am tempted to fall into the trap of wasting a pick on a high school guy, I really try to avoid pitchers with great Stuff but lacking Movement and Control. Those types will likely either [a] throw out their arm, [b] eventually face guys who can turn on a 95 MPH heater, or [c] never harness their control enough to throw pitches where they want - or all three!

A similar thing to avoid with high school hitters would be those sluggers who have huge power but little contact or sense of the strike zone. Remember that the big hitters in high school will have lots of walks, not due to a fine eye, but because guys like me are afraid to pitch to them. If they can’t make consistent contact in high school, they are unlikely to improve as they face better opposition. Sure, they will always have the power, but launch angle and escape velocity are irrelevant, if you can’t hit the ball squarely.

So, OOTP is just being realistic about high school guys. Draft them at your own risk, as IRL. There will be plenty of studs who go on to college, at least junior college. It’s a myth that all of the real talent gets picked off after high school. Plenty of guys are late bloomers or develop later or still today are overlooked. Not every star is on a travel team or at an academy or a top Summer league. I’ll take a guy at 50% confidence in his outcome and two or three years away, versus a guy with 10% confidence and five or six years out. There will be exceptions, but I’d have to be convinced.

08-17-2023, 03:18 PM	#11
Pelican Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2021 Location: Wilmington, Delaware Posts: 3,299	Agree with the above, which is why I prefer to draft pitchers especially and hitters too with at least some college experience. Plus, they are closer to being MLB ready than an 18-year-old. It’s asking a lot of a scout to project an 18-year-old playing in high school (potentially against guys like me, when I played in high school, not destined for professional baseball) against uneven opposition, relatively few games even counting Babe Ruth and summer leagues. At least you can look at pitcher or batter stats for a guy in the SEC and figure that was against consistently good opposition at the (low) Class A level of the minors. If I am tempted to fall into the trap of wasting a pick on a high school guy, I really try to avoid pitchers with great Stuff but lacking Movement and Control. Those types will likely either [a] throw out their arm, [b] eventually face guys who can turn on a 95 MPH heater, or [c] never harness their control enough to throw pitches where they want - or all three! A similar thing to avoid with high school hitters would be those sluggers who have huge power but little contact or sense of the strike zone. Remember that the big hitters in high school will have lots of walks, not due to a fine eye, but because guys like me are afraid to pitch to them. If they can’t make consistent contact in high school, they are unlikely to improve as they face better opposition. Sure, they will always have the power, but launch angle and escape velocity are irrelevant, if you can’t hit the ball squarely. So, OOTP is just being realistic about high school guys. Draft them at your own risk, as IRL. There will be plenty of studs who go on to college, at least junior college. It’s a myth that all of the real talent gets picked off after high school. Plenty of guys are late bloomers or develop later or still today are overlooked. Not every star is on a travel team or at an academy or a top Summer league. I’ll take a guy at 50% confidence in his outcome and two or three years away, versus a guy with 10% confidence and five or six years out. There will be exceptions, but I’d have to be convinced. __________________ Pelican OOTP 2020-? ”Hard to believe, Harry.”