Quote:
Originally Posted by Syd Thrift
In that respect, sure, FIP stats aren’t perfect but they’re stable more quickly than ERA because by concentrating on the peripherals they don’t ding a guy for unlucky sequencing. I’m not sure they’ll ever quite figure out how to account for situational hitting, exactly (although I suspect that the slow move to physics will mean that statheads of the future won’t feel the need to), but I don’t think perfect needs to be the enemy of good here,
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I've always seen FIP as a predictive stat... how well is this pitcher likely to do in the future, whereas non-FIP measures are more result stats... how well did this pitcher do in the past.
After all, championships are won and lost on what actually happens in the games, not what is statistically most likely to happen. A swinging bunt hit on a nasty breaking ball can win Game 7, and a screaming lineout on a hanging curve can end it. The fact that the screaming liner is a hit 98% of the time is only relevant when God decides to save-scum that play.