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Speaking as someone who manages out every game and have done it that way since forever, it does SEEM like there is something written into the game where a SP is just "off" on a given day. At the time guys seem to be "on" at times too.
I base this just off the feel I've gathered on this. There will occasionally be times where a SP who rates out as a good player just can't get anyone out and the walks and hard hit balls just seem to be one after another. To the OP's point, if every at-bat is a new set of randomness, leaving that SP in the game since he's normally good would seem to make sense........ but there just seems to be times that that SP can't get anyone out and yes I do pull him when that becomes evident.
Could there be some sort of hidden "confidence meter" rating for each player? Could there be some sort of hidden "consistency" rating for each player and depending on what that rating is would dictate how far his ratings could deviate from one start to the next? The developers have said in the past hot / cold streaks DO provide slight upticks or downticks to ratings. Could there be some type of hidden confidence or consistency rating that could do the same?
I don't know the answer to that, but I do know there are times here and there where a SP gets shelled to the point that it seems to be going beyond just randomness. And I'm not at all mad at that, I actually like it because it does resemble IRL. It's an interesting question being asked.
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