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I've always felt the pitcher's HOLD rating was more important that the Catcher's arm or ability when it came to throwing out guys trying to steal. I don't track any data on this, but it just really seems to be how things play out for my games.
I will say, IRL even the catchers with the very best arms have no chance to throw runners out when the pitcher can't hold runners and/or has a slow delivery.... So I would say, pay more attention to the pitcher's hold rating and don't just focus on catcher's arm.
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