Quote:
Originally Posted by Palaaemon
Grats on the great season my friend! It looks to have been a successful one but we have no idea what it entailed. I am sure you will fill us in so I won't pester you with questions (even though I have plenty). I will wait (im)patiently.  |
Okay, you talked me into it. Rather than a detailed, month-by-month and stats-heavy breakdown, I'll go by position, and mix in a little thinking about the future, too.
Catcher. We began with a platoon of Jamie Collins (vs RH) and Rich Wilson (vs LH). Collins hits for power, Wilson doesn't hit much but is notably better behind the plate. Getting most of the starts early on, Collins hit poorly while Wilson was hovering around .270, so I bumped Collins down. Wilson didn't hit much after that, but was better defensively and got on base more often. A free agent on a one-year deal, I extended Wilson for three more seasons (plus a year-four TO) and will make him the "starter" for '58, although Collins will still play a lot. Collins has not fulfilled the early promise I thought he had, and so I do not consider this position a settled one in the longer term, even with Wilson's extension. We have no "can't miss" prospects coming up here, either, so I may have to settle for good-enough hitting and solid defense instead.
First Base. Villalpando started hot, prompting a trade of long-time (and disgruntled) former starter Josh Matson. Pando had a solid season and he's still growing, so I expect bigger and bigger things from him this season and beyond. He will require a cornerstone-type contract one day, however, so we'll have to make room for that eventually. He's also a natural 3B, and could move back there if one of my non-fielding type prospects needs a safe haven in the lineup sometime soon.
Second Base. Bill Gamboa was the surprise of '56, but got off to an awful start (batting around .140) and was returned to AAA in June. He came back after a month and raised his average by a hundred points over the course of the season, and stabilized our subpar middle infield defense. If he can at least bat .250 with some power and some OBP, while playing that plus-ZR and high Efficiency defense, he'll stick around. And he's not being pushed by anyone in the system: stud hitting prospect Julio Cepin is listed as a 2B, but seems to have an active fear of a batted ball, so the jury is out as to where he'll wind up on the field.)
Third Base. Jose Caldering started and ended the year as the main guy here, but in between he really struggled, and often found himself platooning or spending whole series on the bench. All of his rate stats declined from '56, despite getting 150 more at bats. For now, he's still the #1, although SS J.J. Simmons outplayed him defensively here. He'll get one more year to find his bat, as our scouts still say he's capable of .300 and 30 HR year-in, year-out. That kind of hitting will more than make up for a subpar glove.
Shortstop. Simmons is now 35, but turned in his usual solid season at the plate, and stayed healthy for the second year running. His .394 OBP usually had him in leadoff, and he generally produced, even if he's a step below his golden days. Having lost a step in the field, ideally he'd be at third (where he's won 3 GGs) instead, but his complete lack of power is not ideal there. Given that he's making a hefty $25M this year and next (with a PO for '60), he'd better keep producing. The #1 prospect in MLB is Cris Flores, who looks *just about* ready for the bigs; if he has a big camp, that may force him into the lineup and force some platoons at second and third. Flores, however, has missed extended time his last two minor league seasons, so he's not a certainty here despite his lofty projections. Alaistair Hulse made 64 starts here and was fine, despite his lack of power. A nice backup option in case of injuries, and a cranky man when he's not starting, just for fun.
Outfield. We began the year with a Bennetsen-Hassell-Reynolds trio, none of whom hit at all over the first month. Reynolds in particular did not really earn his hefty extension (over $30M in '57, now $41M for this season) until the all-star break. Bennetsen never did regain his past form, and in fact was moved into the pitching staff for a spell in August. He may still have more of a future there. I like him, but he may become a salary victim if he never regains his early-career form at the plate. Hassell looked like my CF of the future in the minors, and the scouts still say he'll mature into a dynamite hitter. But he's no longer a CF option, really, as this season's fielding stats (-14 ZR) demonstrate. So while Reynolds remained in right, the rest of the OF became a constant juggling act of Bennetsen, Hassell, and planned backups Jeremy Hagemann and Beau Collins. Hagemann fared the best at the plate, although Collins showed flashes as well. Neither is fun to watch in the field (esp. Collins and his -7 ZR in 60 starts in center). Only Reynolds was a positive defensively, and this unit's poor play in the field likely contributed to our pitching's struggled (more on that below). So I feel like I need to go out and grab a CF, meaning that one of the five non-Reynolds guys may have to go.
Designated Hitter. Jules Medici was the team MVP at the plate, and carried the offense until he slumped in September. But by then everyone else had come around, and we played our best team ball of the season. He's the largely unsung hero here, topping 40 HR for the fourth time, turning in his usual 5 WAR effort, and winning his third Silver Slugger. He also has five post-season series MVP nods, and although it's not really "a thing" I'll go old-school and say he's one of the best clutch hitters in the league today.
Starting Pitching. Really the unit that carried us through much of the summer until our team hitting came around. Ace Matt Waugh was great, although more of an A+ than his usual A++. He's 30 now, so who knows what the future holds; but he won his fifth straight Cy Young and second title with us, so he's been worth every penny of his huge contract. John Loeb finished his second season as a solid #2, and at 29 I hope he's got a few more years of that in him. Afther those two we did struggle to find consistency. Josh Irvin fell off the table, winding up in the bullpen by August. He found his form in long relief, and despite his awful ERA and high BABIP, his better-looking FIP and some improved K and BB rates bode well for a return to form. Rookies Christensen and Shinnick rounded out the opening day rotation: the former pitched poorly and wound up in AAA, while the latter pitched well but still ended up back in AAA on rehab. Filling in, Croft started strong but faded badly as the season wore on. We also tried hopeful Will McGee, RP Manny Reyes and OF Erik Bennetsen, both of whom made one good start and a handful of bad ones. Ultimately, we traded for old hand Mike Bader, who was more than solid down the stretch. Going into '58, I expect a top four of Waugh, Loeb, Bader (re-signed!), and Irvin, and a fight between Christensen, Shinnick, and Croft for the fifth spot. Maybe McGee too.
Bullpen. Closer Nate Kearns was solid again, although he did have a couple of shaky stretches during mid-season. He's in his 30s now, and although still solid, I'll have to decide if I keep sending him to arbitration, or take a chance on a longer-term but more expensive contract. Reyes and Mayer were the usual setup men, with Mihalkovsky getting time here too. All were solid in an "if I'm not thinking about them they must be doing fine" way. We traded for vet John Starkey to fill out things, but he struggled enough to spend half the year in AAA, where he also struggled. Schechter didn't pitch much but was great when he did, and Zeolla was a deadline acquisition who was fine down the stretch but may be too expensive to bring back. This group will probably look much the same in '58, with the addition of free agent Rene Casuas, who missed the year after getting hurt in camp. It's possible a "failed" starter will get shuffled in here as well.
............
A close read of the above should reveal why this was such a trying season for me. Our expected (predicted by MLB) top AL offense was at the low-end of the top ten for much of the season, although we turned it on enough late to finish top-three in most categories. We were maddeningly inconsistent at times, getting outhit more often than not, and going through week-long stretches where we couldn't seem to get more than 3-4 runs and 5-8 hits in every game. So it was left to our pitching to carry us through past the All-Star break, until the team offense really jelled by August and we tore through the final two months of the season.
What does 2058 hold? Well, we're over budget, and despite making $62M in profit last year, I think our stingy owners are about to screw us over, budget-wise. Our salaries are a bit top-heavy, and we're now counting on several guys with long-term deals who are now at or past age 30 to not turn into millstones overnight. Our team defense was terrible, at the bottom in ZR and EFF, and probably contributed to the struggles guys like Irvin had on the mound. And probably our ultimate first-world problem is that, despite having the #1 ranked prospect system, it's top-heavy and there are some positions (C, 2b, 3b, OF, SP) where we have little to no depth at all. Our best hitting prospects are 1b/DH types, but you only get two of those in your lineup, right? So while I think we'll compete for another title in '58, I'm not going to answer the phone from the home office, and I'm going to worry about every little twinge that some of the older guys are surely due for...