[ayaghmour2]

Weekly Record: 2-4
Seasonal Record: 87-60 (2nd, 5 GB)
Stars of the Week
Johnnie Jones : 1 Win, 7.0 IP, 7 BB, 6 K, 1.29 ERA
Leo Mitchell : 27 AB, 7 H, 0 HR, 0 RBI, .259 AVG, .556 OPS
Joe Brown : 1 Win, 19.0 IP, 4 BB, 4 K, 2.37 ERA

Schedule
9-16: Win vs Cannons (0-1): 10 innings
9-17: Loss vs Cannons (8-3)
9-18: Loss vs Sailors (3-2)
9-19: Loss vs Sailors (6-4): 11 innings
9-21: Win at Kings (4-1)
9-22: Loss at Kings (5-6): 10 innings

Recap
The Cougars and disappointing their fanbase? Can you name a better combo!?!?

Oh... Wait!!! The Cougars and losing close games!!!!

There's really not a wrong answer, as the Cougars are quite practiced at both, but this week really hurt. Not because it made a pennant seem impossible, but because we regressed to the annoying team that loses games they should win. We dropped four of six, with two games ending in extras, two games decided by a single run, and thankfully a loss where we did pretty much everything wrong in a game where Peter the Heater looked more like Peter the Piper who Picked a Peck of Pickled Peppers. Close games have been our Achilles heel, 5-7 in extra inning games, 23-24 in one-run games, and 10-12 in two-run games. But games decided by three runs or more? 54-26! For a full 154 games, that would be about 104 wins! Imagine that!

Technically, we're not completely mathematically eliminated from the postseason, but it would take a few miracles, and then some, for us to return to the postseason. Not only would we have to sweep the Stars, but we would then have to sweep the Kings while the Saints simultaneously sweep the Stars. And even that's not enough! We'd still then have to beat the Stars again in a tiebreaker match, and I don't see the team that won 71 of their last 107 games (.664) is going to lose six games in a row. But nonetheless, we'll still act like we can do it, with the last five games going to Pap, Donnie, Riley, Pap, and Donnie.

Perhaps instead of those three, I should go to Joe Brown, who threw a 4-hit, 10-inning shutout to start the week. His second start wasn't as great, allowing 9 hits, 5 runs, and 3 walks in 9 innings, this time not continuing when the game went to extras. Brown was awful to start the season, and had a 5.68 ERA on June 29th. From the 30th on, Brown made nine starts, going 4-2 with a 1.39 ERA (!!) and 0.85 WHIP. I knew he'd turn things around, and if he didn't miss nearly four weeks with injury, perhaps we would have been a little closer to first. He's done for the year, so the captain of the staff will finish 6-7 with a 3.09 ERA (1.09 ERA+) and 1.07 WHIP with 25 walks and 46 strikeouts. 33 next March, Brown is penciled into the starting rotation, and could end up slotting anywhere between 3rd and 6th. Another guy fitting that classification is Johnnie Jones, who managed to win his 26th and final start. Jones went just 7, as 7 walks ran up his pitch count. He was able to work around it, as he allowed just three hits and a single run while striking out six. In his first season since 1943, Johnnie did have some walk issues, charged with 114 free passes in 225.1 innings pitched. His K/9 dropped from 4.4 to 3.5, and he actually struck out less batters this year (88) then he did in 196.2 innings (97) as a rookie. If we can get him to either cut down the walks or return to his previous strikeout numbers, he could be another ace to add to the collection. He has the ability to go deep into games, wiggle out of trouble, and keep the ball on the ground, all useful for back to middle rotation guys, but with so many high upside youngsters and a few years away from 30, he could get pushed out with out making any additional improvements.

Billy Riley still has a start left, but it may be his last as a Cougar. It's about time Duke Bybee gets a shot to impress, and Riley is the most appealing candidate. I don't think you could blackmail me into trading Papenfus or the Jones Brothers, and I doubt there is anyone that values Harry Parker even a quarter as much as I do. Joe Brown's a captain, and well versed as a stopper if we need to push someone out to make room for innings. Riley, on the other hand, doesn't have as deep of an attachment to Chicago as the rest. He's the only pitcher to start a game for us this year who did not debut in a Cougar uniform, and he's the only one who hasn't spent seven or more years in our organization. Add in his breakout season and inclusion in the top 20 pitchers list, and the market for him should be competitive in the offseason. While not quite as good as his Allen-Worthy 1942 season, Riley has been dominant, 17-6 with a 2.46 ERA (137 ERA+) and 1.11 WHIP. He's struck out 87 and walked 63 in 226.2 innings, giving him eight consecutive seasons with 200 or more innings pitched. He leads the CA in win percentage (.739) and opponent BABIP (.237), ranks second for ERA, ERA+ (137) and shutouts (4), third for WHIP, and seventh for wins. In a perfect world, we move him for an top 20 bat, potentially at third base, but he could also help bolster and already impressive farm system. We don't have many holes, but the more assets I can acquire, the more I can overpay for a difference maker. Luckily, this offseason will feel like a breeze with no military behind the scenes stuff, and with a huge improvement on our win total from last season, we're going to have a really good shot for an early pick. That's not going to make another season without the playoffs any easier, but the new lottery system makes it so you can take something away from a competitive season.

I touched on it earlier, but Peter the Heater had his first bad start since June 25th. The Cannons put up 9 hits, 6 runs, and 7 walks with 6 strikeouts in just 7 innings. He hasn't pitched less then 8 since the 25th, and the only start that wasn't 9 was during Henry Shaffer's 5-hit shutout in New York. Papenfus has two starts left, and will need 15 strikeouts to reach 200, which might be a bit too much. Especially with one of them against the Stars. His ERA jumped to 2.31 (146 ERA+), but he still leads in all three triple crown categories. Donnie Jones will enter the final week 18-11, so if he wins both his starts, we would have two 20-win starters. The 11 hits in his complete game loss were annoying, but he walked just two and struck out eight. Despite the high ERA (3.17, 106), his FIP (2.93, 86) is nearly identical to his elite rookie year (2.92, 88). Next season should be huge for Jones, and if we have him and Pap pitching at an Allen level, we really should be popping champagne come October.

While the pitching wasn't dominant, all of the blame for this week goes to the offense. The only two batters that did any sort of hitting happen to play the same position, so it didn't really help us all that much. That position would be first base, as Ray Ford was 3-for-8 with 6 walks and 3 runs scored while Dick Walker went 2-for-10 with a double, triple, 4 runs, 4 walks, and 2 steals. When that's all you get, it's hard to win games, so I shouldn't be too surprised with the results. Hal Sharp has gone ice cold, putting up a 1-for-11 performance with 2 runs and 2 walks, dropping his season line to .323/.381/.451 (139 OPS+). September has been awful, as he followed up a stellar August (.394/.442/.577, 208 WRC+) with a .188/.259/.208 line. At times, Sharp was a difference maker, but it's too bad that he couldn't come up when it mattered most. He's still in line for a majority of the at bats next season, but Don Lee (.239, 2, 19, 7) has looked really good in right (3.5, 1.047), and he's shown that he can hit big league pitching. They'll start in a platoon, but if Sharp starts out slow and Lee comes out hot, it won't be hard to choose between a popular leader and a selfish narcissist. But when those selfish narcissists hit 44% better then the average nice guy, you can play nice for nine innings a day.

Looking Ahead
Man... Do I really want to look ahead? All I see is us getting eliminated at home...

Just five games left in the season, three with the Stars and two with the Kings. New York is on their way to a pennant, and they've now matched our run differential (+152), but since they score runs and we prevent them, our expected record (93-56) is two games better then theirs (91-58). Obviously, that matters very little, as Pythagoras himself doesn't bestow the team with the best expected record a shiny trophy! A shiny trophy may be awarded to Bill Barrett, who is hitting .253/.407/.497 (154 OPS+) and willed his team to a title. William the Conqueror launched 29 homers with 97 RBIs, while drawing 128 walks, stealing 10 bases, tripling four times, and recording 22 doubles in a 6 WAR season. He's as good as it gets, leading the Stars to pennants in each of his last two seasons. And with all the youngsters in the lineup, I imagine this won't be his last trip. The pitching isn't great, which could hurt them in the postseason, as Eli Panneton (18-8, 3.05, 127) is really the only arm that would crack our rotation. Vern Hubbard (18-11, 3.63, 85) has been unlucky, as his 85 FIP- is way better then his 95 ERA+. Beyond that, plenty of question marks, but with an offense as potent as there's, it may not matter who's on the mound.

If there was an anti-Cougars, it would ironically be the team with plenty of the, as the Kings are great in one-run games (23-17) and have a won 10 (!!) more games then their run differential would suggest. They are a game and a half above the Foresters, and could avoid the cellar with a good showing in the final week. They've won one more game then last season, and will want to win more, as they could join us with two lottery balls. Add in the first rounders they've acquired, they could have plenty of shots to add Les Ledbetter if they receive the first or second pick. Young Leo Hayden (19-10, 2.87, 122) is a win away from a 20-win rookie season, while Doc Newell (7-14, 5.04, 55) has a chance for his 200th career win. Harry Stewart (2-5, 4.73, 22) has rejoined the rotation, so we might get to see our former 5th Rounder again, but other then Hayden I'm happy with whoever we face in those last two games. These games might be meaningless, but we'll still give them our two best, as we look to close the season on a high note.