[koohead]

Originally Posted by jeffw3000

The size of the bases does not really add that much to the steal success rate. What does add highly to the rate, is the throw over rule especially, and the pitch clock. Players are heavily taking advantage of these rule changes. In the first 2 weeks of the season the success rate in 2022 was around .54. This year it was .757.

In 2021, AAA used the smaller bases first half of the season, and larger ones 2nd half. In the PCL, they stole .66 bases per game, and a success rate of 75%. In the second half they stole .61 per game, and a 75% success rate. The International League had stolen bases go from .76 with the smaller bases to .83 per game with the larger bases. The success rate went from 77% with the smaller bases to 76% with the larger bases.

The success rate is up a lot this year. You are seeing a lot of veteran guys like Andrew McCucthen really take advantage of the step off rule, and the clock. McCutchen has not stolen more than 10 bases since 2018, but he already has 3 steals on 4 tries this year.

thanks for sharing these data points