TUESDAY APRIL 16, 1946
ANNUAL TWIFB PRESEASON PREDICTION ISSUE
There likely has never been a tougher time to try and call the two FABL pennant winners than what is in store for prognosticators looking at the 1946 season. There are so many variables, nearly all centered around how the many big league veterans returning from the war will perform after layoffs that for some stretched four years. Add in the uncertainty about the war replacement players who had strong seasons the past couple of years but many worry if they will be exposed when the true big leaguers return. And just to make things a little more difficult the three-time defending Continental Association champion Cincinnati Cannons have a new general manager after the old one moved on to Detroit.
The Continental will actually be the easier one to predict, at least most insiders who attempted to make the call on how the loop will stack up at the end of September seem to be on the same page. It is the outcome of the Federal Association that seems to pose the major challenges, but that always seems to be the case.
A year ago nine so-called "experts" weighed in with their picks and four of the nine -Dan Barrell, Jiggs McGee, Archie Irwin and Artie Mortimer- correctly called the Cannons third straight flag with 3 others penciling the Cannons in to second place. Seven of the nine also agreed the Cannons, Chicago Cougars and Toronto Wolves all would finish in the first division a year ago -as they did- and that seems a safe bet according to most this time around again.
It is the Fed where the choices were difficult a year ago and near impossible this time around. Only two of the nine (Mortimer and Doc Shaw) correctly called a second straight pennant for the Philadelphia Keystones and Philadelphia ended up slotted second on two other lists (McGee and John Brinker) but also as low as seventh by two predictors (Dan Barrell and the Philadelphia Record staff choice). A year ago the most first place votes belonged to the Gothams -with four- but the New Yorkers finished a disappointing 7th in the standings.
*** SCRIBES SELECT KEYSTONES AND COUGARS ***
A survey of some of the major newspapers indicate that the Philadelphia Keystones and Chicago Cougars are the teams to beat in the eyes of many of the top baseball columnists. Of the eight who responded to the survey (including OSA's Dan Barrell) they are all in complete agreement that the Chicago Cougars will prevail in the Continental Association. The Keystones are tabbed by 5 of them as the team to beat in the Fed, with each of the disenters picking a different team to top the Keystones. New York Daily Mirror national baseball writer John Brinker likes the St Louis Pioneers, Barrell's OSA is going with Boston as it's choice and the Philadelphia Record is calling for a Gothams win. Interestingly, the Record -which does take a heavy slant towards the Continental's Philadelphia Sailors- is placing the Keystones 7th on the Fed table.
Here are the predictions from the various news outlets. Since the Federal Association is such a tough call this year, we asked a random generator to include a prediction as well. The random numbers landed on the New York Gothams - the same team that won the draft lottery a few months ago although they had dealt their pick away- as the team to beat in the Fed.
The war is over, hurrah! The players are back, hurrah! Unfortunately this makes predicting the 1946 FABL pennant races nigh on impossible. Not so much of a hurrah for the prognosticator.
FEDERAL ASSOCIATION
1: St. Louis - this could be the year for the Pioneers. They have as many pieces as anyone else, so let's give them the nod for their first pennant since 1921
2:Boston - they too have the goods (this will be a recurring theme, as you'll see).
3:Philadelphia - Two words: Bobby Barrell. He's the key to the Keystones (sorry for the bad pun, but this happens to be true).
4:New York - the Gothams' offense is going to be really, really good so it'll boil down to defense and pitching. If the pitching beyond Bowman & Carter is legit, look out. See above re: having the goods.
5:Washington - the Eagles have, of late, become the masters of the "almost there" scenario. I see a repeat of that this season.
6:Pittsburgh - Lefty Allen is the key. If he's the Lefty of old, the Miners should be in the thick of things.
7: Detroit - Young and rising, but this probably isn't there yet (although it would not be a surprise if they arrive sooner rather than later).
8:Chicago - Someone has to be last and honestly, I could even see the Chiefs winning the pennant in what could possibly be the most competitive race in FABL history.
CONTINENTAL ASSOCIATION
1:Chicago - The Cougars back at full strength is a frightening scenario.
2:Cincinnati - The umpteen-time defending champs are still really talented. Also really long in the tooth.
3:New York - The Stars are a-rising. Bill Barrett is still the best hitter on the planet.
4:Philadelphia - Never count out the Sailors. They're competitive every year and this one will be no different.
5:Toronto - The window might have closed for the Wolves. Then again, maybe it hasn't.
6:Brooklyn - The new regime in Kings County is probably going to right the ship in short order. Just not 1946 short.
7:Montreal - The Saints status as the CA's enigma continues. This is a league with two existing titans and another on the rise. The Saints' work is cut out for them.
8:Cleveland - Someone has to be last. As usual, the Foresters are obliging.
OSA CALLING FOR '41 REMATCH BETWEEN BOSTON AND THE COUGARS
For reasons that have nothing to do with baseball 1941 is a year that most would sooner forget but Dan Barrell and his FABL scouting service OSA are bringing up World Championship Series memories of that year with his organization's predictions for the current season. OSA feels the Boston Minutemen and Chicago Cougars -the two participants in that 1941 seven-game classic won by the New Englanders- will duel once more this October as the scouting service is calling on the duo to claim the flags this summer.
The Minutemen are expected to top St Louis and Washington in Federal Association predictions that surprisingly make no mention of Keystones star outfielder Bobby Barrell in the top hitters department. The Keystones, winners of each of the last two Fed flags, will land in fourth place this time around. Another big surprise is the New York Gothams -with their mighty offense led by Red Johnson, the returning Sal Pestilli and Walt Messer and the recently acquired Mahlon Strong, will sputter and finish below .500 for the fourth straight year.
In the Continental Association, the scouting service is calling for an end to Cincinnati's three-year run at the top, pegging the Chicago Cougars as the pennant winners with a FABL best 97 victories. The Cannons will slip to second while the Toronto Wolves -second each of the past three seasons- will fall out of the first division.
I seee the Federal Association shaping up this way: Keystones, Eagles, Gothams, Minutemen, Pioneers, Dynamos, Miners, Chiefs - You can pretty much flip a coin to determine the final position of the standings. But baseball is a game of stars, and Bobby Barrell is the one that shines brightest. Expect the champs to defend valiantly all season, but anything can happen in what should be an exciting and drama filled season. The Gothams will be a team to watch as the league gets a look at Walt, Sal, and Red in the lineup for the first time. Its anyone's game here, so a smart deadline acquisition or major injury to a key player could change the tides quickly.
Continental Association remains Cannons-Wolves-Cougars but I see it ending up with Windy City nine on top: Cougars, Wolves, Cannons, Stars, Saints, Sailors, Kings, Foresters - The last time Pete Papenfus and Donnie Jones pitched together was back in 1941 when they were just 23 and 21. Five years later and they're the top two ranked pitchers by OSA. We could see a record breaking season from the pitching staff, and the offense can support it. The Cannons lineup and the Wolves rotation get close, but the Wolves seem stuck in second and a front office change could end the Cannons streak at three. The return of Bill Barrett means the Stars will be relevant, but '46 still looks to be a three team race
TALES FROM THE WOLVES DEN
1946 Predictions -It is that time of year, a sort of rite of passage in spring, predictions for the order of finish in the FABL. The past four seasons have been difficult due to the possibility of players being plucked from teams to serve in some capacity for the war. This season is probably at least, if not more, difficult with almost all players returning from duty as no one knows how many of the veterans have had the years rob a significant portion of the skills. Which among the youngsters who put their careers on hold to serve their country will emerge as the next generation of stars in the FABL?
Brett's predictions are below, even his confidence in them is lower than previous years. Only one thing is a guarantee, the brand of baseball this summer will be the best since 1941 at all levels with the exception of the GWL.
Federal Association
Philadelphia Keystones
Boston
New York Gothams
Pittsburgh
Chicago
Detroit
St. Louis
Washington
Continental Association
Chicago
Toronto
New York Stars
Cincinnati
Philadelphia Sailors
Montreal
Brooklyn
Cleveland
GOTHAMS READY FOR A NEW ERA
Much has changed since the early war years when the Gothams won their last Championship. Now that most everyone is home from military service it's a new time for FABL. A new kind of war looms on the horizon with the "outlaw" GWL, but that it for the future. For now let's take a look at the opening day roster for the 1946 New York Gothams who expect to be one of many vying for the FA crown.
Pitching: The rotation will begin the season with 5 men listed, although it's certain that Bud Jameson will look to get Ed Bowman and Harry Carter extra starts as the schedule allows
Rotation - Harry Carter, Ed Bowman, Lou Eaker, Tom Henderson, Harl Haines. Eaker was the spring MVP. The 28 year old who has never pitched a major league game due to time in the service, put together quite a spring. 17 IP, 7 hits and no runs, earned or otherwise. Henderson is another 28 year old rooking due to the war. He had a 2.37 spring ERA. Rounding out the trio of 28 year old rookies is Harl Haines. Haines was acquired from the Cougars this part offseason.
Bullpen - Steve Groves, Sam Hodge, Bunny Edwards, Pedro Villareal, Tom Richardson. Groves had a strong 1943 before being called away. Hodge has been a mainstay in the Gothams bullpen through the war years. Edwards was a starter on the '42 championship squad. If it seems that Villareal has been with the organization a long time, you would be correct. A late round selection in 1932 he has been ip and down the organizational ladder for a dozen years. Injuries often derailing his advancement. Now after a midseason callup and successful run in 1945 he'll get a shot at a regular job.
Catcher - Paul Casstevens and Josh Porter will once again handle the staff. Casstevens reacted well to Jameson's '45 vote of confidence, putting up solid offensive numbers. Still only 27 there may be more in his bat.
1st Base - Red Johnson. Now with a full contingent of support, the team expects a big season. Johnson is looking to break out in a big way. Ralph O'Neal, another rookie, has worked his way up the organizational ladder and will get a chance as a pinch hitter and the rare start behind Johnson.
2nd Base - Roosevelt Brewer is back. Now 26 management is expecting Brewer to handle the daily load at second. A solid contributor for the 42 champs, he will be tasked with setting the table ahead of the big bats.
3rd Base - Another war returnee and member of the 42 squad, Mule Monier, will be trying new position. The often scatter armed SS with gap power hopes to settle in at 3rd. Vet Fred Pecora will provide relief and some extra defense.
Shortstop - Looking for a defensive upgrade with some offensive skills the team acquired Gil London to be the every day shortstop. If London can give them what he did for Detroit last season and provide defense behind the staff Jameson would be thrilled. Jim Dickinson, he light hitting gloveman will provide backup around the infield.
Outfield - Oh this could be very interesting. First the big giant IF. Mahlon Strong. You know and I know it's a matter of time before Mahlon's body betrays him. However, for as long as he can play, Walt Messer, Sal Pestilli, Mahlon Strong is an outfield to be reckoned with. Backing them up will be speedy gloveman Bobby Boone and his opposite, all bat no glove, Bill Payne.
While I will agree with those who will say there are question marks, I will also say, don't all teams? For that reason the ol' Red head is picking the Gothams to do one of their bottom to top runs and take the FA title.
WAR IS OVER BUT FEDERAL ASSOCIATION PROMISES A BATTLE
The war is over but there will be plenty of battles fought on big league diamonds this season. Never mind the coming fight with Thomas Bigsby's group of western bandits for players that seems sure to test the mettle of the ball magnates, I am talking about a much more immediate fight. The Federal Association has been a hotly contested war with many participants vying for the flag over the past decade, but this season might just set a new standard for parity with all 8 clubs capable of winning the crown.
All eight you say! Even the Dynamos? Many may be tilting their heads quizzically like the family dog at that statement but, yes, even with the youth movement that is well underway at the 3rd Avenue ballpark, the local ball heroes have nearly as good a chance of winning it all as any of the other seven Fed combatants this year. Sure the Gothams have taken the heart of our last youth movement with both Red Johnson and Sal Pestilli now suiting up for the despised New York nine and much of the lineup that finished a surprising third a year ago is gone: Joe Henry to Montreal, Frank Vance off to the sunset of retirement, Hank Grant and George Bond to the sunshine of the coast league and Cuno Myer to AAA Newark but in their place are plenty of fresh faces raring to go.
The starting lineup will still have some veterans, particularily in the outfield with Aart MacDonald and Sid Williams, as well as Lou Balk and Rip Curry coming of the bench. On the mound are Dixie Lee and Jim Lonardo - both picked up last year for a flag run that once more fell just short- are back with the 41 year old Lonardo chasing his 300th victory. But the core of the team will be it's youth. The Dynamos will likely have two 19 year old's in the starting lineup Friday for the home opener against the Gothams in rookie shortstop Stan Kleminski and starting pitcher Carl Potter, who already lays claim to 14 big league victories despite not turning 20 until the end of this month. 21 year old Dick Estes will make his debut at first base in Chicago today. Manager Dick York's youngest son Rick is now 26 but after spending 3 years in the Navy will finally make his Detroit debut. York did get a few big league games under his belt with Cincinnati back in 1942 but he, along with second baseman Del Johnson and pitchers Wally Hunter, Danny Goff Jr. and Charlie Ashmore are all still considered rookies as are bench pieces Steve Donovan, Win Hamby and the skipper's older son Joe York. 24 year old Dick Blaszak will start in left field and has just 94 big league games on his resume. It will certainly be a young Detroit ballclub and more youth will likely arrive as the season progresses.
The Dynamos will be young and the future looks bright, but will they be competitive this season? That is the big question. It is hard to imagine them finishing in the first division with a team so young, but few anticipated the pennant run of a year ago and the Fed really has no clear cut favourite so a hot start might give them the youthful confidence and the naivete to feel they are unbeatable. One thing is for sure, the Dynamos 1946 ballclub should be entertaining to watch as Detroit builds for a period of sustained excellence. Something that hopefully does not end with the key pieces being shipped off to New York once more the way Red and Sal were dispatched. This is a big week for the ballclub, especially with the Gothams bringing those two former Whitney Award winning Dynamos back to town. Hopefully it is the dawn of a new era in Detroit, one that finally ends a pennant drought that stretches back to 1929. And with no clear cut favourite in the Fed this year, maybe there is a chance for October baseball in the Motor City.
WESTERN MAJOR LOOP IS UNDERWAY
Despite vehement objections from some in the east, the Great Western loop is now officially a major league as the 8 clubs played their inaugural season openers under a big league banner yesterday. The GWL clearly lacks the depth of talent of the FABL clubs, but as the openers proved they can play some pretty exciting baseball and nearly 40,000 paying customers took in the openers led by 11,535 at Hawks Stadium in San Francisco who witnessed the hometown side narrowly top Bay rival Oakland by a 2-1 score.
The other three games saw Portland score twice in the top of the ninth to rally past San Diego 4-3 while in Los Angeles, Ed Ziehl's club pounded visiting Seattle 9-4. The first official game in GWL big league history took place in Texas with the hometown Houston Bulls trimming the Dallas Centurions 5-4 on the strength of a grand slam off the bat of Sam McMorris -who had a cup of coffee with Detroit and Washington a half dozen years ago.
The first pitch in GWL history was a ball from Bill McGraw of Houston to Billy Marshall of Dallas. Earl Kimmell of Dallas got the first hit in GWL major league history and Marshall drove in Lou Hofmeister with the first run.